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Global Affairs Session 60 29 June 2026 PRISONER'S DILEMMA IN WORLD GEOPOLITICS Why rivals keep choosing to defect Modern geopolitics increasingly resembles the classic Prisoner's Dilemma: nations gain most by cooperating on climate, trade, AI safety, arms control and health, yet each fears rivals will exploit restraint. Robert Axelrod's research on the evolution of cooperation shows how repeated interaction — not one-off calculation — can turn selfish rivals into durable partners, a lesson now being tested from the Gulf to the AI race to the Paris Agreement.

Global Affairs Session 49 05 June 2026 EL NIÑO AND GEOPOLITICS A Pacific Ocean cycle with global political consequences A vast pool of unusually warm water building beneath the surface of the equatorial Pacific is set to trigger El Niño through the second half of 2026, threatening droughts, floods, heatwaves and a possible large crop failure. NOAA, WMO and the IRI now rate its emergence as highly likely, and the consequences reach well beyond the weather — into food security, water disputes, energy stress, migration and strategic commodities.