EL NIÑO AND EFFECT ON GEOPOLITICS | HOW BIG CHANGE IS LOADING
Global Affairs Session 49 05 June 2026 EL NIÑO AND GEOPOLITICS A Pacific Ocean cycle with global political consequences A vast pool of unusually warm water building beneath the surface of the equatorial Pacific is set to trigger El Niño through the second half of 2026, threatening droughts, floods, heatwaves and a possible large crop failure. NOAA, WMO and the IRI now rate its emergence as highly likely, and the consequences reach well beyond the weather — into food security, water disputes, energy stress, migration and strategic commodities.