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Global Affairs Session 73 6 August 2026 THE KINDLEBERGER TRAP When no one wants to lead The Kindleberger Trap describes a world in which the established power stops supplying global public goods, while the rising power does not replace it. Trump’s transactional America, Xi Jinping’s limited responsibility and Putin’s disruptive strategy point towards fragmented power, competing blocs, weaker institutions and crises without a trusted stabiliser.

Global Affairs Session 69 29 July 2026 A NEW AXIS OF ATTACK EMERGES Ukraine, the United States and Israel converge against Iran without a formal military alliance The wars involving Iran and Ukraine are beginning to intersect. Washington is fighting Iran while supporting Kyiv, Israel seeks sustained pressure on Tehran, and Ukraine is striking the Iran–Russia logistics network that supports Moscow’s war. The Caspian Sea has consequently become a strategic bridge between the two conflicts.

Global Affairs Session 35 13 May 2026 THE EURASIA STORY The world's largest landmass and its emerging multipolar order Eurasia — the single landmass spanning Europe and Asia — contains most of the world's major civilizational zones, energy reserves, nuclear powers and historical empires. From the Mongol Empire to the collapse of the Soviet Union, the landmass has repeatedly reshaped world order, and today it is scarred by flashpoints stretching from Ukraine to the Red Sea. As China's Belt and Road Initiative competes with India's multi-aligned connectivity strategy, and America works to prevent any single power from dominating the landmass, Eurasia is set to become the main arena of twenty-first-century geopolitics.

Global Affairs Session 30 6 May 2026 AMERICA IS STUCK IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ How military escalation turned a regional waterway into America’s strategic trap The United States entered the Iran conflict with overwhelming military power, but the Strait of Hormuz gave Tehran asymmetric leverage over shipping, energy prices and regional stability. The resulting confrontation shows why military superiority does not automatically produce political control.

Global Affairs Session 28 4 May 2026 THE THUCYDIDES TRAP Rising powers, ruling powers and the danger of war The Thucydides Trap describes the structural danger that emerges when a rising power challenges an established power. Historical transitions show that war is possible but not inevitable: fear, pride, alliances and miscalculation raise the risk, while communication, restraint and workable rules can reduce it.

Global Affairs Session 13 13 April 2026 RAY DALIO & THIRD WORLD WAR The Big Cycle, weakening global order and a de facto world war Ray Dalio argues that the world has already entered an undeclared, prolonged global conflict resembling a world war. Interconnected regional wars, shifting alliances, declining US dominance, rising geopolitical fragmentation and historical “Big Cycle” patterns point towards escalating multi-front conflict, economic warfare and systemic breakdown of the post-1945 global order.