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Global Affairs Session 60 29 June 2026 PRISONER'S DILEMMA IN WORLD GEOPOLITICS Why rivals keep choosing to defect Modern geopolitics increasingly resembles the classic Prisoner's Dilemma: nations gain most by cooperating on climate, trade, AI safety, arms control and health, yet each fears rivals will exploit restraint. Robert Axelrod's research on the evolution of cooperation shows how repeated interaction — not one-off calculation — can turn selfish rivals into durable partners, a lesson now being tested from the Gulf to the AI race to the Paris Agreement.

Global Affairs Session 59 25 June 2026 THE SAMSON OPTION: ISRAEL'S NUCLEAR GAME The existential doctrine of last resort Israel’s alleged last-resort nuclear doctrine, known as the Samson Option, is built around deterrence through the fear of a catastrophic response. Shaped by the historical trauma of the Holocaust and regional vulnerability, this strategy of intentional nuclear ambiguity aims to prevent war by making the cost of aggression entirely unacceptable.

Global Affairs Session 58 24 June 2026 TÜRKİYE'S GAME Erdoğan's high-wire act between East and West Türkiye under Erdoğan has moved from Atatürk's secular, Western-facing republic toward a strong presidential regime that mixes nationalism, Islamic symbolism and strategic autonomy. It stays inside NATO while bargaining with the West, balancing Russia and China, projecting power across the Middle East, and competing for leadership of the Islamic world — a high-wire act that will shape its future as a powerful but troublesome ally.

Global Affairs Session 57 23 June 2026 CHINA VS US: THE EPIC AI CLASH China cracks cheaper and open-source The contest between the United States and China for AI supremacy has hardened into a full-stack rivalry running from chips and data centres to models, applications and global standards. Washington leads at the frontier with closed, premium models built on the world's best compute and capital, while Beijing has turned chip restrictions into an advantage, flooding the market with cheaper, open-source alternatives. What began as a race for better products is fast becoming a contest for control of the next computing platform, and for military, economic and geopolitical power.

Global Affairs Session 56 22 June 2026 US–ISRAEL RIFT? Estranged partners? What next? Israel and the United States have been strategic partners for more than seven decades, but June 2026 exposed a real rift. A US–Iran interim deal, a rebellious Israeli strike, and open Israeli defiance of Washington's terms pulled Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu apart in ways rarely seen in the alliance's history. This session traces the relationship from its 1948 origins to today's standoff, examines the domestic lobby that shapes US policy, and asks where the estranged partnership goes from here.

Global Affairs Session 55 17 June 2026 END OF THE FLAT WORLD? Why globalization's great equalizer is losing its shine Thomas Friedman's "flat world" promised a globalised, technology-enabled playing field where individuals and companies anywhere could compete with established players. Two decades on, the same flattening forces that built outsourcing hubs and global supply chains have triggered a backlash of job losses, wage stagnation and rising inequality. As trade drifts from globalization towards regionalization and the digital world risks fragmenting along geopolitical lines, the flat world may be giving way to a more cautious, resilience-first order — one in which "bridge" nations like India could gain the most.

Global Affairs Session 54 16 June 2026 AI GETS WEAPONIZED America bans Anthropic's frontier AI models In June 2026, the United States banned foreign access to Anthropic's most advanced models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, treating frontier AI as strategic technology on par with chips, weapons systems and encryption. The move marks a shift from controlling hardware to controlling model capability itself — and reveals how thoroughly artificial intelligence has become entangled with geopolitics, national security, and the race for sovereign AI capability, as the world risks splintering into competing AI blocs.

Global Affairs Session 53 15 June 2026 IRAN WINS THE WAR America proposes a peace deal — Israel is unhappy After months of war that began with a joint U.S.–Israeli strike campaign on 28 February 2026, the United States and Iran have announced a preliminary framework to end the fighting, halt the U.S. blockade of Iran, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Markets reacted instantly — oil fell, the dollar weakened, and Gulf and Indian assets rallied — even as Iran's nuclear programme remains unresolved. The war leaves behind a case study in asymmetric warfare, a reshaped Gulf, and early signs that Iran may emerge as a stronger regional power.

Global Affairs Session 52 10 June 2026 PAUL KRUGMAN'S GLOBAL DISORDER Why the world has lost its stabilizing hegemon Paul Krugman argues that the world may go without a clear "world order" for quite a while: the Pax Americana is unwinding, globalisation is fragmenting rather than simply reversing, and no power is stepping up to play the stabilizing role Charles Kindleberger once assigned to a hegemon. The question that follows is whether Europe can fill the gap.

Global Affairs Session 51 09 June 2026 KIM'S GREAT BALANCING ACT China, Russia and North Korea's uneasy triangle China, Russia and North Korea share a common front against United States pressure, yet their eight-decade relationship has swung between alliance, rivalry and even border war. Kim Jong-un has learned to extract maximum advantage from this history, deepening ties with Russia after the Ukraine war and forcing Xi Jinping back to Pyongyang for the first time in seven years to keep Beijing's influence from slipping.

Global Affairs Session 50 08 June 2026 IRAN WAR REIGNITED? 100 days of the Iran war One hundred days after Iran's war with Israel reignited on 28 February 2026, three waves of Iranian strikes, an Israeli response inside Tehran, and a fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire have left the region no closer to a settlement. This session traces how the war escalated, what it has proved about Iran's staying power as a regional actor, why Tehran will not tolerate an Israeli move against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and what a prolonged war would mean for oil, inflation and India.

Global Affairs Session 49 05 June 2026 EL NIÑO AND GEOPOLITICS A Pacific Ocean cycle with global political consequences A vast pool of unusually warm water building beneath the surface of the equatorial Pacific is set to trigger El Niño through the second half of 2026, threatening droughts, floods, heatwaves and a possible large crop failure. NOAA, WMO and the IRI now rate its emergence as highly likely, and the consequences reach well beyond the weather — into food security, water disputes, energy stress, migration and strategic commodities.

Global Affairs Session 48 04 June 2026 FERTILITY AND GEOPOLITICS A shrinking planet reshapes power Global fertility is falling toward, and in most countries below, the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, with the UN putting the world average near 2.25. India's own rate has dropped to about 1.9, with sharp regional and rural-urban gaps. As some nations age and shrink while others stay young and grow, fertility is quietly reshaping labour forces, militaries, tax bases and the balance of global power.

Global Affairs Session 47 03 June 2026 EUROPE AND THE JEWS Faith, persecution and the long return home Jewish communities have lived in Europe for two thousand years, contributing deeply to its trade, science and culture while repeatedly facing expulsion, exclusion and violence. That long history culminated in the Holocaust of the 1930s and 40s, the resurgence of modern Zionism, and the founding of Israel in 1948. In 2026, Jewish life is more concentrated in Israel and North America than ever, even as European communities rebuild in the shadow of renewed antisemitism.

Global Affairs Session 46 02 June 2026 LEBANON AND ISRAEL History, identity and a fragile frontline Lebanon's confessional democracy, its religious diversity and its position in the Levant make it central to Middle Eastern rivalries. Decades of conflict with Israel, capped by the 2006 war, have left Hezbollah, UNIFIL and UN Resolution 1701 at the centre of the country's security. The 2026 escalation, tied to the wider Iran-Israel confrontation, has again turned Lebanon into a frontline state even as reconstruction and refugee questions remain unresolved.