IRAN WAR REIGNITED? | 100 DAYS OF IRAN WAR - LESSONS

Global Affairs Session 50 08 June 2026

IRAN WAR REIGNITED?

100 days of the Iran war

One hundred days after Iran's war with Israel reignited on 28 February 2026, three waves of Iranian strikes, an Israeli response inside Tehran, and a fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire have left the region no closer to a settlement. This session traces how the war escalated, what it has proved about Iran's staying power as a regional actor, why Tehran will not tolerate an Israeli move against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and what a prolonged war would mean for oil, inflation and India.

Overview How it escalated What 100 days taught us Iran as a regional power Why Lebanon matters to Iran If it does not stop

100 days, and the war has reignited

What began as a hastily arranged White House pitch on 11 February 2026 turned into open war within weeks, a ceasefire that never quite held, and a Day-100 flare-up in which Iran fired missiles at Israel and Israel struck back at Iranian targets, including a petrochemical plant. Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu and Iran's leadership remain locked in the same triangle that opened the war, with a possible deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz still being negotiated.

How it escalated

Three waves of Iranian attacks targeted Israel after Israeli strikes on Beirut, and despite Trump's claim that he told Netanyahu not to retaliate, Israel hit back at Iran with intense blasts reported in Tehran and beyond. Iran then declared an end to its military operations, though Israel had yet to respond to that announcement, and Trump pushed both sides toward an immediate ceasefire while a potential U.S.-Iran deal on Hormuz remained under negotiation.

• How it escalated: Three waves of Iranian attacks targeted Israel after Israeli strikes on the Lebanese capital Beirut. Trump said he told Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu not to retaliate, but Israel did hit Iran with intense blasts reported in Tehran and beyond.
• Iran, Israel exchange strikes: Iran declared an end to its military operations against Israel, after the two sides exchanged a wave of attacks that threatened to tilt the Middle East back into all-out war. Israel has yet to respond to the announcement.
• Trump asked both to stop: President Donald Trump had demanded the two countries "immediately stop shooting." He also said they were "looking to do an immediate ceasefire," and that final negotiations on peace were proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way.
• Potential deal: Trump said that the U.S. and Iran were "very close" to a deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz but that some points were still being negotiated.

What 100 days of the Iran war taught us

The last hundred days have shown that maritime chokepoints, energy infrastructure and fragile ceasefires now sit at the centre of how this war is fought and felt, while India's exposure remains economic rather than military.

• Chokepoints are now strategic weapons. The Iran war has shown that Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea are not just shipping routes; they are pressure points. Any disruption there immediately affects oil, LNG, freight, insurance and global trade.
• Energy infrastructure is a frontline target. Strikes on petrochemical, port and refinery-linked assets show that the war is no longer limited to military sites. This raises the risk of wider price shocks and supply-chain stress.
• Ceasefires are fragile without enforcement. The April ceasefire failed to stop renewed Iran-Israel exchanges. Without clear rules on missiles, proxies, maritime conduct and nuclear issues, pauses remain temporary.
• Proxies expand the battlefield. Groups like the Houthis can widen the conflict into the Red Sea without Iran directly escalating everywhere. This makes the war harder to control and predict.
• India's main risk is economic. India is not a direct combatant, but it is exposed through oil prices, shipping delays, insurance costs, inflation pressure and market volatility.
• Escalation control is the real test. Both sides may avoid full-scale war, yet repeated strikes keep the region unstable. The lesson is that limited war can still create global economic and diplomatic damage.

Iran is a proven regional power now

Even under heavy sanctions and sustained military pressure, Iran has shown it can shape events well beyond its own borders, though that power is disruptive rather than dominant.

• Iran has proved it can completely shape and control regional events. Even under heavy sanctions and military pressure, Iran remains able to influence security outcomes across the Gulf, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and the Red Sea.
• Iran's missile and drone capacity is now central to deterrence. Iran may not match Israel or the U.S. in air power, but its missiles, drones and layered retaliation options have made it costly to attack directly.
• Its proxy network gives it strategic depth. Hezbollah, the Houthis and other aligned groups allow Iran to stretch pressure across multiple fronts, from Israel's borders to Bab el-Mandeb.
• Hormuz gives Iran global leverage. By affecting confidence around the Strait of Hormuz, Iran can influence oil, LNG, insurance, freight and inflation far beyond the Middle East.
• Its power is disruptive, not dominant. Iran has shown it can impose costs and create uncertainty, but it still faces economic weakness, sanctions, internal strain and superior U.S.-Israeli military technology.
• The lesson is clear: Iran cannot be ignored. Any durable Middle East settlement must account for Iran's security concerns, regional networks and maritime leverage; trying to bypass Iran has repeatedly failed.

Why Iran insists on no Israeli attack on Lebanon

Iran regards Hezbollah in Lebanon as its most important forward deterrent against Israel, which makes any Israeli move to dismantle Hezbollah a direct threat to Iran's own security calculus, not just an ally's.

• Hezbollah is Iran's key forward deterrent. Iran sees Hezbollah in Lebanon as its most important regional ally against Israel. If Israel weakens Hezbollah heavily, Iran loses a major layer of deterrence on Israel's northern front.
• Lebanon keeps pressure away from Iran's core territory. A live Lebanon front forces Israel to divide attention, airpower and military resources. Iran therefore wants Lebanon protected enough to remain a strategic pressure point, not destroyed as an arena.
• Israeli attacks risk collapsing ceasefire diplomacy. Iran has accused the U.S. and Israel of undermining ceasefire efforts through continued Lebanon operations, while Trump has warned both sides to stop shooting as broader peace talks continue.
• Civilian devastation strengthens Iran's political argument. Lebanon's PM says Israel carried out nearly 3,500 strikes and over 400 demolitions during the ceasefire period, causing mass displacement. Iran uses this to argue that Israel, not Iran, is the destabilising actor.
• Lebanon is tied to Iran's regional-power claim. Iran wants any final settlement to recognise its regional influence, including Hezbollah, Lebanon, Hormuz and allied groups. Reuters reports Iran has demanded sanctions relief and recognition of its regional role as part of a final agreement.

What if it does not stop permanently

A war that keeps reigniting rather than ending carries costs well beyond the battlefield: oil, inflation, interest rates, markets, trade and government budgets would all feel it, and Asia, including India, would be exposed more through economics than through direct conflict.

• Oil shock becomes the first and biggest global risk. If the war continues, crude oil can stay elevated for months. The Strait of Hormuz saw about 20 million barrels per day moved through it in 2024, roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.
• Inflation returns through fuel, transport, food, and chemicals. Higher crude oil raises freight costs, fertilizer costs, plastic and petrochemical prices, aviation fuel, electricity costs in some countries, and ultimately food prices.
• Central banks may delay rate cuts. If inflation rises again, central banks may hesitate to cut interest rates. That means home loans, business loans, corporate borrowing, and government borrowing may remain expensive for longer.
• Stock markets become nervous, but defense and energy stocks may benefit. A long war usually creates "risk-off" sentiment: investors reduce exposure to emerging markets, high-debt companies, airlines, logistics, and consumer sectors. But energy producers, defense companies, cybersecurity firms, and some commodity-linked businesses may see gains, so the market impact will not be uniform.
• India and Asia face a bigger import bill. Asia is exposed because a large share of Gulf oil and LNG goes to Asian buyers. For India, a long war can mean a higher oil import bill, pressure on the rupee, higher current-account deficit, and more inflation risk.
• Government budgets come under pressure. If fuel prices rise sharply, governments face a difficult choice: let consumers pay more, cut fuel taxes, increase subsidies, or release strategic reserves. All options have costs.
• Global trade and shipping costs rise. A prolonged Iran war can push up shipping insurance, reroute cargo, delay supplies, and raise freight costs. This affects not only oil but also LNG, chemicals, metals, auto parts, electronics, and food trade.

Value addition

Glossary and related terms

Strait of Hormuz

A narrow maritime passage linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, carrying roughly a fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption and a critical route for global energy shipping.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait

A narrow strait between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, another chokepoint through which a large share of global shipping and energy trade passes.

Strategic chokepoint

A narrow route or location whose disruption can produce effects on trade, energy and prices far beyond its immediate geography.

Ceasefire enforcement

The mechanisms, rules and monitoring needed to make a truce hold, covering issues such as missiles, proxy attacks, maritime conduct and verification.

Proxy network

Allied armed groups, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, that allow a state to project pressure across multiple fronts without direct confrontation everywhere.

Deterrence

Discouraging an opponent from acting by convincing it that the likely costs will outweigh the expected gains.

Hezbollah

An Iran-aligned political and armed movement based in Lebanon, regarded by Iran as its most important forward deterrent against Israel.

Houthis

A Yemen-based, Iran-aligned armed group capable of striking shipping and targets in the Red Sea, widening the conflict without direct Iranian escalation.

Petrochemical infrastructure

Refineries, ports and chemical-processing assets that have increasingly become direct military targets in the conflict, raising the risk of price shocks.

Current-account deficit

The gap that opens when a country's imports, including oil, exceed its exports and other inflows, a risk that widens for India when oil prices rise.

Risk-off sentiment

An investment mood in which markets reduce exposure to riskier assets and emerging markets in favour of safer holdings, typical during prolonged conflict.

Regional power

A state able to shape security outcomes and events across its neighbourhood, even without matching the military strength of larger global powers.

Escalation control

The effort by conflicting parties to keep hostilities below the threshold of full-scale war while still exchanging strikes.

Value addition

Conceptual references

• Wire-service reporting on the Iran-Israel escalation, ceasefire efforts and Strait of Hormuz negotiations.
• Maritime-security analysis of chokepoints such as Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb and their role in global energy and trade.
• Literature on proxy warfare, asymmetric deterrence and regional-power projection in the Middle East.
• India's oil-import dependence, current-account and inflation exposure to Gulf energy price shocks.
• Reporting on Lebanon's civilian toll during the ceasefire period and its bearing on Iran's regional diplomacy.