TÜRKIYE'S GAME | WHAT IS ERDOĞAN'S BIG STRATEGY
TÜRKİYE'S GAME
Erdoğan's high-wire act between East and West
Türkiye under Erdoğan has moved from Atatürk's secular, Western-facing republic toward a strong presidential regime that mixes nationalism, Islamic symbolism and strategic autonomy. It stays inside NATO while bargaining with the West, balancing Russia and China, projecting power across the Middle East, and competing for leadership of the Islamic world — a high-wire act that will shape its future as a powerful but troublesome ally.
A quick history
Türkiye grew out of the Ottoman Empire, once a vast Muslim imperial power across Europe, Asia and Africa. After the Ottoman defeat in World War I, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk founded the secular Turkish Republic in 1923.
For decades, Türkiye balanced nationalism, secularism, army influence and Western alignment. Since 2002, Erdoğan has reshaped Türkiye toward strong presidential rule, Islamic-nationalist politics, strategic autonomy, regional activism and a more assertive global identity.
Nature of Türkiye's Erdoğan regime
Erdoğan's Türkiye is an electoral but increasingly authoritarian presidential regime.
- Power is highly centralised around Erdoğan and the ruling AKP.
- Institutions face pressure: the media, courts, bureaucracy and security institutions face strong political pressure.
- An ideological blend: the regime combines Turkish nationalism, Sunni Islamic symbolism and conservative social values.
- An unequal contest: elections continue, but opposition parties compete on an unequal playing field.
Relationship of Türkiye with the West
Türkiye remains a NATO member and is still strategically vital to the West.
- Real tensions persist: its relations with the US and EU are tense over democracy, Kurds, Syria, Russia and defense policy.
- Ankara wants Western benefits: it seeks Western trade, technology, investment and security benefits.
- Yet it resists lecturing: at the same time, it rejects Western lectures and seeks independent room for action.
- A bargaining, semi-aligned ally: Türkiye is not anti-Western in a simple sense; it is a difficult, bargaining, semi-aligned ally.
Relationship of Türkiye with Russia and China
Türkiye cooperates with Russia on energy, trade, tourism, Syria and diplomacy.
- But it also competes: Türkiye competes with Russia in Ukraine, the Black Sea, the Caucasus and Central Asia.
- China matters economically: China matters to Türkiye for trade, investment, infrastructure and Eurasian connectivity.
- A hedge against the West: Ankara uses Russia and China to reduce dependence on the West.
- Balance, not subordination: Türkiye wants balance, not subordination to Moscow or Beijing.
Role of Türkiye in the Middle East and MENA
Türkiye wants to be a major regional power and not merely a NATO frontier state.
- Direct intervention: it has intervened in Syria, Iraq, Libya, Qatar and the Eastern Mediterranean.
- A wide toolkit: it uses drones, defense exports, intelligence, trade, religion, aid and media influence.
- A core security goal: preventing Kurdish separatism is one of its core regional security goals.
- Ideology mixed with pragmatism: Türkiye now mixes ideology with pragmatism, seeking influence without total isolation.
Türkiye's stance on Israel
Türkiye recognises Israel but has extremely hostile political relations with it.
- Sharp public criticism: Erdoğan strongly criticises Israel over Gaza, Palestine, Lebanon and Iran.
- A self-cast defender role: Türkiye presents itself as a defender of Palestinians and Muslim causes.
- A swinging relationship: relations have moved between normalisation and sharp breakdown.
- A leadership tool: anti-Israel rhetoric also strengthens Erdoğan's leadership claims in the Islamic world.
Türkiye's role during the Iran War 2026
Türkiye condemned the US-Israeli attacks on Iran and warned against a wider regional war.
- Stayed out militarily: Ankara avoided direct military involvement and protected its own security interests.
- Backed de-escalation: Türkiye supported ceasefire, diplomacy and de-escalation.
- Its value rose: the war increased Türkiye's value as a NATO member, Iranian neighbour and regional broker.
- A dual message: Erdoğan used the crisis to criticise Israel while keeping Türkiye out of open war.
What Türkiye wants in the Islamic world
Türkiye wants prestige as a strong, modern, independent Muslim power.
- Moral leadership claims: it seeks moral leadership on Palestine and selected Muslim causes.
- A wide sphere of influence: it wants influence in Syria, Qatar, Central Asia, the Balkans and Africa.
- Crowded competition: it competes with Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt and the UAE for leadership space.
- Influence, not empire: it invokes Ottoman memory, but its goal is influence, not formal empire.
Future of Türkiye
Türkiye will likely remain a powerful but troublesome NATO ally.
- Depends on four factors: its future depends on the economy, opposition strength, institutions and Erdoğan's succession.
- A settled foreign-policy style: its foreign policy will remain multi-aligned, transactional and nationalist.
- Growing military reach: its drone and defense industries will increase its military influence.
- A five-way balancing act: its central challenge is balancing democracy, Islam, nationalism, economic stability and great-power politics.
Glossary and related terms
- AKP
- The Justice and Development Party, Erdoğan's ruling party, blending conservative, nationalist and Islamist politics.
- Kemalism
- The secular, nationalist and modernising ideology founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk that shaped the early Turkish Republic.
- Electoral authoritarianism
- A political system that holds regular elections while curbing genuine competition through control of media, courts and institutions.
- Strategic autonomy
- A state's pursuit of independent decision-making in foreign and security policy rather than full alignment with any single bloc.
- Multi-alignment
- A foreign-policy approach that maintains simultaneous, transactional relationships with rival powers instead of committing to one camp.
- Semi-aligned ally
- A partner that stays formally within an alliance while regularly pursuing independent or divergent interests.
- NATO frontier state
- A member state whose geography places it directly along the alliance's external security perimeter.
- Kurdish separatism
- Political and armed movements seeking greater autonomy or independence for Kurdish populations, a core security concern for Ankara.
- Eastern Mediterranean dispute
- Overlapping claims among Türkiye, Greece, Cyprus and others over maritime boundaries and offshore gas exploration rights.
- Drone diplomacy
- The use of exported combat drones and defense technology as tools of influence and alliance-building.
- Regional broker
- A state that positions itself as a mediator or intermediary between conflicting parties in its neighbourhood.
- Transactional foreign policy
- An approach that evaluates relationships primarily by immediate, concrete gains rather than ideological consistency.
- Ottoman legacy
- The historical memory of Ottoman imperial rule, invoked today for cultural and political influence rather than territorial restoration.
- Sunni Islamic symbolism
- The use of religious identity and imagery to build domestic legitimacy and regional leadership claims.
Conceptual references
- Comparative literature on electoral authoritarianism and democratic backsliding.
- NATO alliance-cohesion debates involving frontier and semi-aligned members.
- Analyses of multi-alignment and transactional diplomacy among middle powers.
- Eastern Mediterranean maritime-boundary and energy-exploration disputes.
- Studies on Ottoman historical memory as a tool of contemporary regional influence.
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