RUSSIA-UKRAINE DEADLY GAME | HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ON WAR
RUSSIA-UKRAINE: DEADLY GAME
Shared roots, divided histories, unresolved war
Ukraine and Russia share deep historical links through Kyivan Rus', but their paths diverged sharply after the Mongol invasion, leaving Ukraine to develop between competing empires while Moscow grew into a large one. Post-1991 disputes over Crimea, security and identity escalated into war in 2014 and full-scale invasion in 2022, a conflict still unresolved as of 2026.
Ukraine and Russia
Ukraine and Russia share deep historical links, but Ukraine has a distinct national history.
After 1991 their relationship moved from uneasy post-Soviet coexistence to conflict in 2014 and full-scale war in 2022.
Ukraine-Russia history — simplified
Ukraine and Russia share early roots in Kyivan Rus', but their histories moved in different directions after the Mongol invasion. Russia grew around Moscow into a large empire, while Ukraine developed between several rival powers and built a distinct national identity — a divergence that lies at the root of today's conflict.
- Shared early roots: Ukraine and Russia share early roots in Kyivan Rus'.
- A historical split: After the Mongol invasion, their histories moved in different directions.
- Russia's rise around Moscow: Russia developed around Moscow into a large empire.
- Ukraine between empires: Ukraine developed between several empires and built a distinct national identity.
- The root of the modern conflict: The modern conflict comes from Russia treating Ukraine as part of its historical sphere, while Ukraine insists it is an independent nation with the right to choose its own future.
Ukraine-Russia history — 10 point summary
A longer view traces the same divergence in more detail: shared East Slavic origins in Kyivan Rus', centuries of Ukraine developing between competing powers while Moscow consolidated into an empire, and a twentieth century of Soviet control, repression and industrialisation that ended in Ukraine's 1991 independence — followed by unresolved tensions that grew into war.
- Kyivan Rus' as the common origin: Ukraine and Russia share early East Slavic roots, especially through Kyivan Rus', a medieval state centred on Kyiv.
- Decline after the Mongol invasion: Kyivan Rus' declined after the Mongol invasion in the 1200s, and its lands began developing in different directions.
- Moscow's rise: Moscow rose in the north-east, gradually becoming Muscovy, then the Russian Tsardom, and later the Russian Empire.
- Ukraine between competing powers: Ukraine developed between competing powers, including Lithuania, Poland, the Ottoman sphere, Austria-Hungary, and Russia.
- The Cossack era: The Cossack era became central to Ukrainian identity, especially the idea of military freedom, frontier self-rule, and resistance to outside domination.
- Absorption into the Russian Empire: By the late 1700s, much of Ukraine was inside the Russian Empire, while western Ukraine remained under Austrian/Habsburg influence.
- A brief bid for independence: After the Russian Revolution of 1917, Ukraine briefly tried to become independent, but most of it was absorbed into the Soviet Union by the early 1920s.
- Soviet-era control and devastation: Under the USSR, Ukraine was formally a Soviet republic but controlled from Moscow, suffering repression, the Holodomor, World War II devastation, and Russification, while also becoming industrially important.
- 1991 independence, lingering tensions: Ukraine became independent in 1991 after the USSR collapsed, while Russia became the Russian Federation; tensions remained over Crimea, identity, gas, borders, and Ukraine's foreign-policy direction.
- From sphere of influence to full-scale war: The modern conflict grew from Russia seeing Ukraine as part of its sphere of influence, while Ukraine increasingly insisted on full sovereignty and a European future, leading to Crimea's annexation and the Donbas war in 2014, then Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022.
Focus on Russia
Russia's own historical narrative also traces back to Kyivan Rus', but its political centre shifted north to Vladimir-Suzdal and then Moscow, from where it expanded across Eurasia into an empire and, later, the dominant republic of the Soviet Union — before emerging in 1991 as the Russian Federation, inheriting the USSR's Security Council seat and nuclear arsenal.
- Shared origin, shifted centre: Russia's early historical narrative is also linked to Kyivan Rus', but the political centre of what became Russia later shifted to Vladimir-Suzdal and then Moscow.
- Muscovy's rise: Moscow rose as the centre of Muscovy, expanded its power, and eventually became the core of the Russian state.
- Imperial expansion: The Russian Empire expanded across Eurasia, including Siberia, the Caucasus, Central Asia, the Baltic region, and large parts of present-day Ukraine.
- Dominant Soviet republic: After the 1917 Revolution, Russia became the largest and dominant republic of the Soviet Union, though the USSR was formally a federation of Soviet republics.
- Successor state to the USSR: After the USSR collapsed in 1991, Russia became the Russian Federation, inheriting the USSR's UN Security Council seat, nuclear arsenal, and much of its geopolitical weight.
Ukraine-Russia relations, 1940-1991
For half a century, Ukraine and Russia were not independent states dealing with each other but republics inside the same Soviet Union — a period that brought Nazi occupation and devastation to Ukraine in World War II, made it a key Soviet industrial region, and included the 1954 transfer of Crimea that later became a major post-Soviet dispute.
- Republics within one state: From 1940 to 1991, Ukraine and Russia were not two independent states in normal diplomatic relations; both were republics inside the USSR.
- World War II devastation: World War II devastated Ukraine, including Nazi occupation, mass killings, deportations, and enormous military and civilian losses.
- A Soviet industrial powerhouse: Post-war Ukraine became one of the USSR's most important industrial, agricultural, military, and scientific regions.
- The 1954 Crimea transfer: Crimea was transferred from the Russian Soviet republic to the Ukrainian Soviet republic in 1954. At the time, this was an internal Soviet administrative transfer; after 1991 it became a major dispute.
- The road to independence: In the late 1980s and 1991, Ukrainian national and democratic politics grew rapidly, and Ukraine voted for independence as the USSR collapsed.
Ukraine-Russia relations — 1991 onwards
Independence did not resolve the core disputes: Ukraine gave up its inherited nuclear arsenal in exchange for security assurances, its politics swung repeatedly between Russia and Europe, and Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea marked the start of a war that expanded into full-scale invasion in 2022.
- Independence recognised, disputes remain: Russia recognized Ukraine's independence after 1991, but disputes remained over Crimea, the Black Sea Fleet, nuclear weapons, borders, energy, and Ukraine's geopolitical direction.
- The Budapest Memorandum: Ukraine gave up the nuclear weapons it inherited from the USSR, with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum giving Ukraine security assurances from Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom.
- Swinging political alignment: Ukraine's politics after independence often swung between closer ties with Russia and closer ties with Europe, especially visible in the 2004 Orange Revolution and the 2013–14 Euromaidan/Revolution of Dignity.
- The 2014 annexation of Crimea: Russia occupied and annexed Crimea in 2014, a move Ukraine and most of the international community reject as illegal.
- From 2014 war to 2022 invasion: The Russia–Ukraine war began in 2014, with Crimea's annexation and fighting in Donbas; the 2022 invasion was an expansion into full-scale war.
The 2022 war
Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022 attacked Ukraine from multiple directions but failed to take Kyiv; Ukraine's continued resistance, backed by major Western support, has made this the largest and bloodiest war in Europe since World War II, and as of 2026 it remains ongoing with heavy losses on both sides.
- The invasion begins: Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022.
- Multi-front attack, Kyiv holds: Russia initially attacked from multiple directions, including toward Kyiv, Kharkiv, the south, and Donbas, but failed to capture Kyiv.
- Resistance and Western support: Ukraine resisted militarily and politically, retaining its government in Kyiv and receiving major military, financial, intelligence, and humanitarian support from Western countries.
- Europe's largest war since 1945: The war became the largest and bloodiest war in Europe since World War II, according to major international-policy assessments.
- Still ongoing in 2026: As of 2026, the war is still ongoing, with Russia occupying parts of Ukraine, both sides suffering heavy losses, and drones, missiles, artillery, air defence, manpower, sanctions, and foreign military aid shaping the conflict.
The future?
A quick peace settlement looks unlikely without compromises on territory, security guarantees and alignment; a prolonged or frozen conflict is a realistic possibility, with Ukraine moving closer to Europe and NATO, Russia growing more dependent on non-Western partners, and continued military pressure alongside periodic diplomacy the most likely near-term path.
- A quick settlement is unlikely: A quick peace settlement is unlikely unless both sides accept compromises on territory, security guarantees, sanctions, and Ukraine's future alignment.
- A prolonged or frozen conflict: A prolonged war or frozen conflict is possible, because Russia controls territory it wants to keep, while Ukraine does not accept permanent loss of internationally recognized territory.
- Ukraine drifts toward Europe and NATO: Ukraine is likely to move closer to Europe and NATO politically and militarily, even if formal NATO membership remains uncertain.
- Russia's dependence deepens: Russia is likely to remain under Western sanctions and more dependent on non-Western partners, especially if the war continues without a settlement.
- Pressure plus periodic diplomacy: The most realistic near-term outcome is continued military pressure plus periodic diplomacy, rather than a clean victory by either side.
Glossary and related terms
- Kyivan Rus'
- A medieval East Slavic state centred on Kyiv, regarded as the shared historical origin of both Ukraine and Russia.
- Muscovy
- The principality centred on Moscow that grew into the Russian Tsardom and later the Russian Empire.
- Cossacks
- Frontier military communities in Ukraine associated with ideas of self-rule and resistance to outside domination, central to Ukrainian national identity.
- Holodomor
- The man-made famine in Soviet Ukraine in the early 1930s, widely regarded as a defining episode of Soviet-era repression.
- Budapest Memorandum
- A 1994 agreement under which Ukraine gave up its inherited Soviet nuclear arsenal in return for security assurances from Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom.
- Orange Revolution
- Mass protests in Ukraine in 2004 against a disputed presidential election, seen as a turn toward closer ties with Europe.
- Euromaidan / Revolution of Dignity
- Protests in Ukraine in 2013–14 against the government's rejection of closer ties with the European Union, leading to a change of government.
- Donbas
- An industrial region of eastern Ukraine that has been a centre of fighting since 2014.
- Annexation of Crimea
- Russia's occupation and formal absorption of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, treated as illegal by Ukraine and most of the international community.
- Sphere of influence
- A region in which a larger power claims a special right to shape political, security or economic outcomes, even over a nominally independent state.
- Frozen conflict
- A conflict in which large-scale fighting has stopped or reduced without a political settlement, leaving the underlying dispute unresolved.
Conceptual references
- Historical scholarship on Kyivan Rus' as the shared origin point of Ukrainian and Russian statehood.
- Accounts of the Holodomor and World War II-era devastation in Soviet Ukraine.
- The 1994 Budapest Memorandum and debates over the durability of security assurances short of formal alliance commitments.
- Analyses of Ukraine's post-1991 political swings, including the Orange Revolution and Euromaidan.
- International-policy assessments describing the 2022 invasion as Europe's largest war since World War II.
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