STORY OF INDO-PACIFIC | WORLD'S MOST INFLUENTIAL REGION

Global Affairs Session 38 18 May 2026

STORY OF INDO-PACIFIC

Free-flowing waters of trade and power

The Indo-Pacific is a strategic oceanic region linking India, Southeast Asia, Australia, Japan, China, and America through trade, security, and geopolitics. From ancient maritime trade routes to today's major powers, contested water bodies and competing regional visions, this session traces how the Indo-Pacific became the central arena of twenty-first century geopolitics — and where it may be headed by 2030.

Overview What is the Indo-Pacific Historical powers Major players 2026 Major water bodies Future of Indo-Pacific

Overview

The Indo-Pacific is a strategic oceanic region linking India, Southeast Asia, Australia, Japan, China, and America through trade, security, and geopolitics.

What is the Indo-Pacific

The Indo-Pacific is a vast strategic region linking the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. In geopolitics, the term is often used in ideas such as a "free and open Indo-Pacific".

• The Indo-Pacific is a vast strategic region linking the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.
• It stretches broadly from the east coast of Africa to the western Pacific, though different countries define it differently.
• It includes key regions such as South Asia, Southeast Asia, East Asia, Oceania, and parts of East Africa.
• It is important because much of the world's trade, energy supply, shipping, technology production, and naval activity passes through it.
• In geopolitics, the term is often used in ideas such as a "free and open Indo-Pacific," especially by countries like India, Japan, Australia, and the United States.

Historical powers

India and China were ancient civilizational and trading powers connected through maritime routes, Buddhism, goods, and ideas. Japan emerged as a major Indo-Pacific power in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, especially before and during World War II.

• India and China were ancient civilizational and trading powers connected through maritime routes, Buddhism, goods, and ideas.
• Arab traders played a major role in Indian Ocean trade, linking East Africa, Arabia, India, and Southeast Asia.
• European colonial powers such as Portugal, the Netherlands, Britain, France, and Spain dominated many ports and sea routes from the 16th century onward.
• The British Empire became especially powerful through control of India, Singapore, Malaya, Australia, and key naval routes.
• Japan emerged as a major Indo-Pacific power in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, especially before and during World War II.

Major players 2026

In 2026, the Indo-Pacific is shaped by a mix of established and rising powers, with the United States, China, and India as central actors, and Japan, Australia and the ASEAN countries playing crucial supporting roles.

• United States — still the leading military power in the Pacific, with alliances involving Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines.
• China — a rising naval, economic, and technological power, especially active in the South China Sea and through the Belt and Road Initiative.
• India — a central Indian Ocean power with growing naval, economic, and diplomatic influence.
• Japan and Australia — key U.S. partners, active in regional security, technology, infrastructure, and defence cooperation. Australia is also central to AUKUS.
• ASEAN countries — especially Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines, because they sit near crucial sea lanes and chokepoints.

Major water bodies

The Indo-Pacific has no fixed boundary, but broadly spans the Indian and Pacific Oceans, covering over half the Earth's surface and major coastal regions worldwide.

• Indian Ocean — links East Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Australia.
• Pacific Ocean — the world's largest ocean and the eastern half of the Indo-Pacific framework.
• South China Sea — one of the world's most contested and commercially important maritime areas.
• East China Sea and Sea of Japan — strategically important waters involving China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and the U.S. alliance network.
• Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea, Andaman Sea, and Strait of Malacca — vital for India, Southeast Asia, energy flows, and global shipping.

Future of Indo-Pacific

The Indo-Pacific will likely remain the main centre of global economic growth, especially because of India, China, ASEAN, Japan, and digital economies. It may see more strategic competition between the U.S. and China, especially over Taiwan, the South China Sea, technology, and military influence.

• The Indo-Pacific will likely remain the main centre of global economic growth, especially because of India, China, ASEAN, Japan, and digital economies.
• It may see more strategic competition between the U.S. and China, especially over Taiwan, the South China Sea, technology, and military influence.
• India's role will grow, particularly in the Indian Ocean, maritime security, supply chains, and Global South diplomacy.
• New groupings such as the Quad and AUKUS will continue shaping defence and technology cooperation.
• Climate change, rising seas, fisheries, undersea cables, energy security, and maritime law will become major issues for the region's future.

Value addition

Glossary and related terms

Indo-Pacific

A geopolitical construct linking the Indian and Pacific Oceans into a single strategic theatre of trade, security and diplomacy.

Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)

A vision, promoted especially by the United States, Japan, India and Australia, emphasising open sea lanes, rules-based order and freedom of navigation.

Quad

An informal strategic grouping of the United States, Japan, India and Australia focused on security, technology and regional cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.

AUKUS

A trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, centred on advanced defence capabilities including submarines.

SAGAR

India's maritime doctrine — "Security and Growth for All in the Region" — outlining its vision for the Indian Ocean.

ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations' framework for engaging with the Indo-Pacific concept while preserving ASEAN centrality.

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

China's global infrastructure and connectivity programme, including a maritime silk road component through the Indo-Pacific.

Strait of Malacca

A narrow, heavily trafficked sea passage between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, critical to global shipping and energy flows.

Thalassocracy

A state or empire whose power and influence rest primarily on control of the sea and maritime trade.

Strategic chokepoint

A narrow maritime route whose disruption can affect trade, energy supplies and security far beyond its immediate geography.

IPEF

The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, a United States-led initiative on trade, supply chains and economic standards in the region.

Blue economy

Economic activity — fisheries, shipping, energy, tourism — that depends on the sustainable use of ocean and coastal resources.

Value addition

Conceptual references

• Historical maritime trade networks linking India, China, Arabia, East Africa and Southeast Asia across the centuries.
• Comparative regional frameworks: FOIP, BRI, Quad, AUKUS and IPEF as competing and overlapping visions for the Indo-Pacific.
• Strategic-geography literature on chokepoints, sea lanes and maritime security, including the Strait of Malacca and South China Sea.
• Institutional analysis of ASEAN centrality within Indo-Pacific regional architecture.
• Blue-economy and climate-security perspectives on ocean governance and the region's long-term outlook.