Global Affairs Session 15 15 April 2026

AN ERA OF WAR

Multiple conflicts, hard power politics and the arrival of prolonged instability

The world is not in one declared global war, but multiple regional conflicts are unfolding simultaneously and creating wider instability. The post-Cold War phase of cooperation is weakening as military strength, territorial control and coercion return to the centre of statecraft.

Era of war Hard power politics Harbingers of instability Indo-Pacific tangle Four forces Our future

An era of war

• Not a declared World War, but multiple conflicts: The world is not in a single global war, but in a situation where multiple regional conflicts are happening simultaneously. These conflicts are interconnected and create global instability.
• Return of hard power politics: The post-Cold War phase of cooperation is weakening. Military power, territorial control and coercion have returned as central tools of statecraft.

Hard power politics

• Emphasis on military strength and coercion: Hard power politics focuses on the use of military force, defence capabilities and strategic coercion to achieve national interests. Countries increasingly rely on armed strength, deterrence and direct intervention rather than diplomacy alone.
• Territorial control and strategic dominance: It involves asserting control over territory, resources and key geopolitical regions. Conflicts such as Ukraine and tensions in the South China Sea show how states use hard power to expand influence and secure strategic advantages.

Harbingers of instability

• Russia-Ukraine War remains central: The war has entered a prolonged phase of attrition. It continues to affect global energy markets, food supply chains and inflation trends.
• Persistent instability in West Asia: The Israel-Hamas conflict has widened regional tensions. Involvement of actors linked to Iran has increased the risk of escalation beyond Gaza.
• Red Sea becoming a strategic flashpoint: Attacks on shipping have disrupted one of the world’s key trade routes. Many vessels are rerouting, increasing the time and cost of global trade.

The Indo-Pacific tangle

Rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific: Disputes in the South China Sea and concerns around Taiwan are increasing military presence and strategic competition in the region.

Remember these four

1. Energy security as geopolitics: Energy routes and supplies are now deeply tied to conflict. Oil and gas are being used as strategic tools, affecting both economies and alliances.
2. Rise of hybrid warfare: Modern conflicts include cyber attacks, misinformation campaigns, economic sanctions and political interference alongside traditional military action.
3. Increasing role of artificial intelligence: AI is being used in surveillance, targeting and military planning. Warfare is becoming more data-driven and technologically complex.
4. Expansion of drone warfare: Low-cost drones are changing the nature of conflict. They allow even smaller actors to challenge conventional military systems effectively.

Our future

Major instability is arriving.

Value addition

Glossary and related terms

Hard power

The use of military capability, economic pressure or coercive leverage to influence the behaviour of other actors.

Statecraft

The methods used by a state to protect its interests and conduct relations with other states.

Coercion

Pressure or threats intended to make another actor change its behaviour.

Attrition

A prolonged struggle in which each side attempts to wear down the other’s personnel, equipment and capacity.

Strategic flashpoint

A location or dispute with a heightened risk of confrontation and wider escalation.

Hybrid warfare

The combined use of conventional force, cyber operations, misinformation, economic pressure and political interference.

Strategic competition

Long-term rivalry among states for influence, security, technology, resources and military advantage.

Deterrence

Discouraging an action by convincing an opponent that its likely costs will outweigh its expected gains.

Drone warfare

The use of remotely operated or autonomous aerial systems for surveillance, targeting and attack.

Geopolitical risk

The possibility that international conflict or political tension will disrupt security, trade, energy or economic activity.

Value addition

Conceptual references

• The distinction between a formally declared world war and multiple interconnected regional conflicts.
• Hard power, coercion, deterrence and territorial control as instruments of statecraft.
• Conflict-driven disruption of energy markets, food supply chains and maritime trade routes.
• Strategic competition in the South China Sea and around Taiwan.
• Hybrid warfare, artificial intelligence and low-cost drones in contemporary conflict.
• The economic, humanitarian and institutional consequences of prolonged global instability.