Global Affairs Session 79 17 August 2026

SUDAN'S LONG SHADOW

Red Sea, UAE, KSA, Energy and India

Sudan’s war began in April 2023 as a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). It has become a nationwide civil war with major foreign involvement, and Sudan’s shadow falls on India through people, trade, energy security in the Gulf and Gulf diplomacy.

Civil war overview Darfur conflict How the war began UAE versus Saudi Arabia Global importance Why it matters to India

A bloody civil war in Sudan

Sudan’s war began in April 2023 as a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

It has become a nationwide civil war with major foreign involvement. The SAF has regained Khartoum and much of central Sudan, while the RSF remains dominant across much of Darfur. Fighting has shifted toward Kordofan and Blue Nile.

Almost everyone is involved! The UAE is accused of backing the RSF, while Saudi Arabia and others are closer to the SAF but also support peace efforts. Sudan’s shadow falls on India as well, due to Indians working there, trade relations, energy security in the Gulf and Gulf diplomacy.

The Darfur conflict (2003 – till date)

1. Where and when: The Darfur conflict began in 2003 in western Sudan, when rebel groups rose against the Sudanese government (of Omar al-Bashir).
2. Why it began: Many communities in Darfur felt politically neglected and economically marginalized. Competition over land, water, and grazing resources increased tensions.
3. Main players: The conflict involved the (i) Sudanese government, (ii) government-backed Janjaweed militias, and (iii) rebel groups such as the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) and Justice and Equality Movement (JEM).
4. Human impact: The fighting caused large-scale killings, village destruction, displacement, hunger, and refugee flows into neighboring countries such as Chad.
5. Long-term result: Peace agreements reduced some fighting but did not fully solve the conflict. Darfur remained unstable, and forces that emerged from the conflict later became important in Sudan’s wider power struggle, including the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

How this Civil War came about

1. Sudan was ruled for decades by military leader Omar al-Bashir.
2. Bashir used militias during the Darfur conflict; these later evolved into the RSF. Bashir was removed in 2019 after mass protests.
3. Burhan and Hemedti became Sudan’s two most powerful military leaders. (Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RAF) led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, or Hemedti).
4. Both helped overthrow the civilian-led government in 2021.
5. Their dispute over control of the military triggered war in April 2023.

UAE versus Saudi Arabia – Proxy warriors

1. Sudan has developed an east-west military division: the Army dominates much of eastern and central Sudan, while the RSF remains entrenched across western Sudan.
2. Kordofan is now the crucial hinge. It lies between RSF-controlled Darfur and army-controlled central/eastern Sudan. Control of its roads and cities determines whether either side can connect its territories and sustain military supply lines.
3. Sudan accuses the UAE of supplying weapons and support to the RSF. The UAE denies supporting either side militarily.
4. UN experts and others have investigated evidence of external support to the RSF.
5. Gold trade and UAE commercial interests are important parts of the relationship.
6. Saudi Arabia is politically closer to the SAF and favours a unified Sudanese state. It has hosted peace negotiations, giving it both strategic and diplomatic roles.

What Sudan matters globally

1. Sudan sits at the intersection of North Africa, the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, bordering seven countries.
2. Instability affects Egypt, Chad, South Sudan and other neighbouring states. Chad, South Sudan and Egypt have absorbed large numbers of refugees.
3. Sudan has a strategically important Red Sea coastline (850 km). Port Sudan is the country's principal maritime gateway.
4. The war now involves drones, foreign weapons and mercenaries. This is one more example of “Asymmetric Warfare”.
5. Sudan is important for gold, agriculture and gum arabic exports. Sudan supplies ~80% of the world's gum arabic, used in beverages, confectionery, cosmetics and pharmaceuticals.
6. An African Union delegation arrived in Sudan on 16 August 2026 seeking renewed momentum. Continued division could eventually create a de facto partition of Sudan.

Why Sudan matters to India

1. The first impact is human. Thousands of Indians were living or working in Sudan when fighting began. Under Operation Kaveri, India evacuated 4,097 people.
2. India and Sudan have longstanding commercial links. Sudan exports products such as sesame seeds, gum arabic, cotton, watermelon seeds, hides, skins and groundnuts to India, while Indian exports include food products, pharmaceuticals and textiles.
3. India's commercial interests run in the opposite direction as well. Indian pharmaceutical companies remain important suppliers to Sudan; continuing warfare damages demand, distribution, payments, insurance and transport even when trade itself does not stop completely.
4. Red Sea security is strategically important for India. Indian trade heading toward Europe through the Suez route depends on stability across this maritime neighbourhood. A more fragmented Sudan adds another layer of risk to a Red Sea already affected by Iran conflict.
5. Sudan presents India with a diplomatic balancing problem. New Delhi has strong relationships with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and African states, while traditionally emphasising sovereignty and state-to-state relations. India's interest is therefore not in choosing a Sudanese faction.

Value addition

Glossary and related terms

Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)

Sudan’s regular national military, led during the present conflict by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and dominant across much of eastern and central Sudan.

Rapid Support Forces (RSF)

A powerful Sudanese paramilitary force led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, or Hemedti, with roots in forces that emerged from the Darfur conflict.

Janjaweed

Government-backed militias active during the Darfur conflict; forces and networks associated with them later contributed to the formation of the RSF.

Darfur

A region in western Sudan where rebellion and government-backed militia violence produced a major conflict beginning in 2003.

Kordofan

A strategically important region between Darfur and central Sudan whose roads and cities connect rival territorial and military supply zones.

Blue Nile

A conflict-affected area of Sudan toward which fighting has shifted as the wider civil war has moved beyond Khartoum and Darfur.

Proxy war

A conflict in which outside powers support local forces or factions to advance their own strategic, political or commercial interests.

Asymmetric warfare

Conflict between unequal forces in which the weaker or less conventional side relies on methods such as militias, drones, mobility or indirect attacks.

Mercenary

A combatant recruited to fight primarily for payment rather than as a regular member of a country’s armed forces.

De facto partition

A practical division of a country into separately controlled territories even though no formal or legally recognised partition has occurred.

Sahel

The broad semi-arid belt south of the Sahara whose states and security problems connect North Africa with sub-Saharan Africa.

Horn of Africa

The strategically important north-eastern part of Africa adjoining the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Red Sea security

The protection and stability of the maritime corridor linking the Suez route with the Indian Ocean, important for trade, energy and naval movement.

Port Sudan

Sudan’s principal maritime gateway on the Red Sea and a critical outlet for trade, supplies and external access.

Gum arabic

A commercially important Sudanese export used in beverages, confectionery, cosmetics and pharmaceuticals.

Operation Kaveri

India’s evacuation operation during the Sudan conflict, under which 4,097 people were brought out of the country.

Value addition

Conceptual references

• The SAF–RSF power struggle and the historical connection between the Darfur conflict, the Janjaweed and the rise of the RSF.
• Sudan’s geography at the meeting point of North Africa, the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea.
• Proxy warfare, external military support, Gulf strategic competition and the role of gold and commercial interests.
• Asymmetric warfare, mercenaries, drones, territorial fragmentation and the risk of a de facto partition.
• India’s evacuation, trade, pharmaceutical links, Red Sea interests and diplomatic balancing among Gulf and African partners.