Global Affairs Session 97 22 September 2026

ARTIFICIAL STATES CRUMBLING?

From Pan-Arabism of Nasser to GCC of 2026

The six GCC monarchies emerged through different histories, but several modern Gulf sovereignties were consolidated only in the 20th century. British treaty systems shaped Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the Trucial States (7 sheikdoms), while pan-Arabism supporter Gamal Nasser challenged imperial-era Arab fragmentation. Hereditary rule, migrant-heavy labor markets, hydrocarbon revenues, and external security partnerships remain important. The 2026 Iran war, Hormuz disruption, Houthi Red Sea blockade, island seizures, and attacks on Saudi export infrastructure exposed serious vulnerabilities, while fiscal buffers and adaptation preserved state continuity.

Summary

The six GCC monarchies emerged through different histories, but several modern Gulf sovereignties were consolidated only in the 20th century.

British treaty systems shaped Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the Trucial States (7 sheikdoms), while pan-Arabism supporter Gamal Nasser challenged imperial-era Arab fragmentation. Hereditary rule, migrant-heavy labor markets, hydrocarbon revenues, and external security partnerships remain important.

The 2026 Iran war, Hormuz disruption, Houthi Red Sea blockade, island seizures, and attacks on Saudi export infrastructure exposed serious vulnerabilities, while fiscal buffers and adaptation preserved state continuity.

How modern Gulf map formed

1. Kuwait Ends British Agreement: Kuwait became fully independent in 1961 after terminating the 1899 agreement that had constrained its external relations.
2. Bahrain and Qatar independent: Bahrain and Qatar became independent in 1971, ending longstanding British treaty relationships in the lower Gulf.
3. Trucial sovereignty was restricted: The 1892 Exclusive Agreements restricted Trucial rulers (7 Sheikhs) from foreign relations or territorial disposal without British consent.
4. Nine State Federation Proposed: The 1968 federation proposal included Bahrain, Qatar, and seven Trucial States, different from today’s configuration.
5. UAE formed in stages: Six emirates formed the UAE in December 1971, while Ras Al Khaimah joined in February 1972.
6. Saudi and Oman differ: Saudi Arabia was unified under Abdulaziz by 1932, while Oman’s Al Busaidi ruling tradition dates to 1744.

Gamal Abdel Nasser

1. Second President of Egypt: Gamal Abdel Nasser served as Egypt's president from 1954 until his death in 1970, becoming one of the most influential political figures in the modern Arab world.
2. Leader of 1952 Revolution: As a military officer, he was a key architect of the Free Officers Movement that successfully overthrew King Farouk I and the Egyptian monarchy in a bloodless coup.
3. Nationalization of Suez Canal: In 1956, Nasser took control of the Suez Canal Company, which led to the Suez Crisis against Britain, France, and Israel, and cemented his status as an anti-imperialist hero.
4. Champion of Pan-Arabism: He was a passionate advocate for Arab nationalism and unity, which culminated in the brief formation of the United Arab Republic, a political union between Egypt and Syria from 1958 to 1961.
5. Co-founder of the Non-Aligned Movement: Alongside leaders from countries like India and Indonesia, he helped establish this international movement to maintain neutrality and independence during the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union.
6. Domestic modernization and reforms: His government implemented widespread socialist policies, extensive land reforms to help poor farmers, and large-scale state infrastructure projects, most notably the Aswan High Dam.

Pan-Arabism

1. Core ideology: It is a nationalist political movement advocating for the unification of all Arab countries across the Middle East and North Africa into a single nation or a tightly integrated coalition.
2. Shared identity: The concept relies on the belief that Arab people share a common cultural heritage, history, and language (Arabic), which should supersede local, national, or tribal allegiances.
3. Anti-imperialist focus: It gained massive momentum in the 20th century as a mechanism to resist Western colonialism, oppose foreign intervention, and secure true political and economic independence for the Arab world.
4. Peak influence: The movement reached its absolute zenith during the 1950s and 1960s, driven largely by the charismatic leadership of Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser and the rise of the Ba'ath Party in Syria and Iraq.
5. Real-world application: Its most notable practical manifestation was the United Arab Republic (1958–1961), a brief and ultimately unsuccessful political union between Egypt and Syria designed as the first step toward wider Arab unification.

Nasser challenged the territorial Arab order

1. Nasserists challenged existing borders: A 1958 United States intelligence estimate had said Nasserists viewed many Arab boundaries as artificial creations of outsiders.
2. Nasser used artificial partition: In 1963, Nasser called the Arab nation “artificially partitioned” and said responsibility extended beyond “artificial boundaries.”
3. Union became State Policy: Egypt and Syria formed the United Arab Republic in 1958, but Syria withdrew from the union in 1961.
4. Yemen became Arab battleground: Egypt backed Yemen’s republicans after 1962, while Saudi Arabia supported royalists during the wider Arab Cold War.
5. Nasserism reached Gulf societies: Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar saw demonstrations supporting Nasser and Arab nationalism during the 1956 Suez Crisis.
6. No GCC collapse prediction: Nasser died in 1970 before three future GCC states gained independence and eleven years before the GCC formed.
7. Historical caution: Nasser demonstrably attacked what he considered artificial Arab fragmentation. Evidence does not support claiming that he specifically predicted the future GCC states would collapse.

Hereditary rule remains institutionalized

1. Monarchy remains: All six GCC states retain hereditary monarchical systems, although constitutional powers and representative institutions differ substantially.
2. Saudi succession dynastic: Saudi Arabia’s Basic Law limits governance to Abdulaziz’s sons and grandsons, with succession governed by constitutional rules.
3. UAE embeds emirate rulers: The UAE Federal Supreme Council, its highest constitutional authority, consists of the rulers of all seven emirates.
4. Bahrain and Qatar codify: Bahrain and Qatar constitutionally established hereditary rule within the Al Khalifa and Al Thani ruling families.
5. Oman created Crown Prince: Oman’s 2021 Basic Statute created a formal Crown Prince mechanism, beginning succession with the Sultan’s eldest son.
6. Kuwait suspended Parliament: Kuwait’s Emir dissolved parliament in May 2024 and suspended specified constitutional provisions for up to four years.
7. Oman: Hereditary succession among male descendants of Sultan Turki bin Said already existed in the 1996 Basic Statute. A significant 2021 change was the explicit succession order and formal Crown Prince mechanism.

Extraordinary demographics

1. Kuwaitis a minority: Kuwait’s census counted 1.489 million citizens and 2.897 million non-citizens, leaving citizens roughly one-third of residents.
2. Bahrainis also minority: Bahrain’s 2024 statistics recorded citizens at 46.6 percent and non-citizens at 53.4 percent of residents.
3. Saudi Arabia remains majority: Saudi citizens comprised 55.6 percent of the population in 2024, while non-Saudis represented 44.4 percent.
4. Qatar workforce exceptional: Qatar’s 2020 census found non-Qataris comprised 94.4 percent of the economically active population aged fifteen and above.
5. Labor markets segmented: Across GCC economies, expatriate workers remain heavily concentrated in private employment compared with national public-sector employment.
6. Kuwait public employment dominates: About 80 percent of employed Kuwaitis work for government, which offers stronger security and higher comparable wages.

Oil created wealth and dependence

1. Hydrocarbons finance government: Hydrocarbon revenues remain central to GCC public finances, despite sustained diversification and expansion of non-oil economic activity.
2. Kuwait remains exposed: The IMF says Kuwait retains the GCC’s highest hydrocarbon share of government revenue despite very large financial buffers.
3. Bahrain carries heavy debt: Bahrain’s 2024 fiscal deficit reached 11 percent of GDP, while gross government debt reached 134 percent.
4. Oman rebuilt fiscal space: The IMF projected Oman’s 2026 fiscal surplus at 4.5 percent of GDP, supported by higher oil revenues.
5. Qatar’s strong surpluses: The IMF expects Qatar’s fiscal and current-account surpluses to continue despite geopolitical and longer-term LNG market risks.
6. UAE’s large buffers: In July 2026, IMF staff reported strong UAE buffers, low public debt, and continuing fiscal and external surpluses.

The 2026 two-chokepoint crisis

1. Iran War began February: The current Iran war began February 28 with joint United States and Israeli strikes followed by Iranian retaliation.
2. Gulf States faced instant retaliation: Iran launched missiles at several Gulf states hosting United States forces, including Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE.
3. Hormuz traffic collapsed: Only two commodity vessels crossed Hormuz on September 21, versus about 125 large commercial ships daily before war.
4. Saudi bypass hit: Drone attacks on September 13 shut Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, halting crude exports through the Yanbu route.
5. Pipeline partly restarted: Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West Pipeline on September 22 at reduced rates, with full restoration timing unspecified.
6. Houthis expanded Red Sea control: Houthis seized Mocha, Perim, Greater Hanish, and Lesser Hanish, expanding control across Yemen’s Red Sea approaches.
7. Geographic distinction: Perim, also called Mayyun, lies directly inside Bab el-Mandeb and separates its two shipping channels. Greater and Lesser Hanish lie farther north in the Red Sea, extending Houthi strategic reach along the shipping corridor.

Stress, fragmentation, and resilience

1. Saudi Shipping blockaded: Houthis declared a naval blockade targeting Saudi shipping, while other vessels continued using Bab el-Mandeb despite heightened risk.
2. Bab El Mandeb stayed open: Twenty-six vessels crossed Bab el-Mandeb on September 21, confirming disruption without complete closure to commercial traffic.
3. GCC unity incomplete: The GCC was founded in 1981 seeking coordination and integration leading to unity, but political union never followed.
4. Qatar rift exposed fractures: Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain joined the 2017 Qatar boycott before diplomatic and commercial ties were restored in 2021.
5. Customs Union unfinished: In December 2025, GCC leaders ordered completion of remaining Customs Union requirements and new implementation mechanisms.
6. Saudi UAE rivalry deepened: Saudi and UAE interests diverged over Yemen in 2025, while bilateral trade remained around $30 billion annually in early 2026.

Conclusion

The evidence supports neither a single origin story nor a claim of uniform GCC collapse.

Several Gulf sovereignties were shaped by British arrangements, while Saudi Arabia and Oman followed different trajectories.

Nasser challenged Arab territorial fragmentation, but State system survived. In 2026, war exposed dependence on Hormuz, Red Sea routes, energy infrastructure, and external security. Yet governments have retained their sovereignty so far.

The central question is durability under sustained strategic pressure, not predetermined disintegration.

Value addition

Glossary and related terms

GCC

The Gulf Cooperation Council. In this session it refers to the six Gulf monarchies and to the organisation founded in 1981 to pursue coordination and integration.

Gulf monarchies

The six GCC states discussed in the session, all of which retain hereditary monarchical systems while differing in constitutional powers and representative institutions.

Trucial States

The seven sheikhdoms referenced in the session whose external relations were restricted by British treaty arrangements; six formed the UAE in December 1971 and Ras Al Khaimah joined in February 1972.

1892 Exclusive Agreements

Agreements that, as described in the session, restricted Trucial rulers from conducting foreign relations or disposing of territory without British consent.

Nine-state federation proposal

The 1968 proposal that brought Bahrain, Qatar and the seven Trucial States into a proposed federation, different from the eventual UAE configuration.

Pan-Arabism

A nationalist political movement advocating the unification of Arab countries or much tighter Arab political integration around a shared language, history and cultural identity.

United Arab Republic

The political union of Egypt and Syria formed in 1958; Syria withdrew in 1961.

Nasserists

Supporters of the political current associated with Gamal Abdel Nasser, including his emphasis on Arab nationalism, unity and opposition to imperial-era fragmentation.

Hereditary monarchy

A monarchical system in which rulership and succession operate within a ruling family under the state’s constitutional or dynastic rules.

Federal Supreme Council

The UAE body described in the session as the country’s highest constitutional authority, consisting of the rulers of all seven emirates.

Crown Prince mechanism

The formal succession mechanism introduced by Oman’s 2021 Basic Statute, with the Sultan’s eldest son first in the succession order described in the session.

Expatriate worker

A worker who is not a citizen of the country of employment; the session notes that expatriates are heavily concentrated in private employment across GCC economies.

Hydrocarbon revenue

Government income connected with oil and gas production and exports; the session describes it as central to GCC public finances despite diversification.

Fiscal deficit

A public-finance position in which government expenditure exceeds government revenue over the relevant period.

Fiscal surplus

A public-finance position in which government revenue exceeds expenditure over the relevant period.

Government debt

The outstanding financial obligations of a government; the session uses gross government debt when discussing Bahrain.

Current-account surplus

A positive external-balance position in which a country’s current-account receipts exceed its current-account payments over the measured period.

Financial buffers

Financial resources or assets that can help a government absorb economic, fiscal or geopolitical shocks.

Strait of Hormuz

The eastern maritime chokepoint highlighted in the session’s 2026 crisis discussion, where commercial traffic fell sharply during the war.

East-West Pipeline

Saudi Arabia’s pipeline route to Yanbu referenced as a bypass for Gulf export routes and as a target of September 2026 attacks.

Bab el-Mandeb

The Red Sea chokepoint discussed in the session; Perim lies directly inside it and separates its two shipping channels.

Perim / Mayyun

The island identified in the session as lying directly inside Bab el-Mandeb and separating its two shipping channels.

GCC Customs Union

The GCC economic-integration framework whose remaining requirements were still being ordered toward completion in December 2025, according to the session.

State continuity

The persistence of governments and sovereignty despite strategic, economic or institutional pressure; the session contrasts such continuity with claims of predetermined disintegration.