Global Affairs Session 88 04 September 2026

DEEP POLITICS OF AFRICAN UNION

Can Africa become a geopolitical power?

The African Union brings together 55 member states in an ambitious effort to convert Africa’s demographic, economic and geopolitical weight into collective influence. Its importance has grown through the AfCFTA, permanent G20 membership and demands for UN reform, but implementation, financing, conflict and competing national interests remain serious constraints.

Opening visuals Summary From OAU to AU 55 national interests Peace & security AfCFTA Global institutions Strategic question Conclusion Glossary

Summary

The African Union brings together 55 member states in an ambitious effort to convert Africa’s demographic, economic and geopolitical weight into collective influence.

Created in 2002 from the earlier OAU, it now works across peace and security, trade, infrastructure, development and global diplomacy. Its importance has grown through the AfCFTA, permanent G20 membership and demands for UN reform.

Yet the AU still struggles with implementation, financing, conflict and competing national interests. Its central challenge is therefore not institutional survival, but effectiveness. Africa is becoming more important globally; the question is whether the AU can organise that growing power into a coherent continental voice.

From OAU to AU: a much bigger ambition

1. The Organisation of African Unity was created in 1963 during the era of decolonisation. Its primary concern was protecting sovereignty and completing the liberation of Africa.
2. The African Union was launched in 2002 with a broader and more ambitious mandate. It moved the focus from independence toward integration, development, peace and continental cooperation.
3. The AU today has 55 member states, making it one of the world’s largest regional organisations. Its headquarters in Addis Ababa has become a major centre of African diplomacy.
4. The AU’s long-term framework is Agenda 2063, often described as “The Africa We Want.” It aims for greater prosperity, integration, peace and global influence.
5. The basic tension remains unresolved. African states want stronger continental institutions, while still guarding national sovereignty very closely.

One Africa — but 55 national interests

1. The AU is not a supranational union in the way the European Union partly is. National governments still control defence, taxation, foreign policy and most major economic decisions.
2. Africa is also too diverse to have one automatic strategic priority. The Sahel, Horn of Africa, North Africa, Great Lakes and Southern Africa face very different pressures.
3. Regional organisations such as ECOWAS, SADC, EAC and IGAD often act before the AU does. This creates multiple layers of authority and sometimes competing responses.
4. Large African states such as Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia and Algeria also have distinct strategic ambitions. Their interests do not always align on major continental issues.
5. The AU therefore works best when national and regional interests overlap. Continental unity is easier to declare than to operationalise.

Peace and security: the AU’s hardest test

1. The AU created a Peace and Security Council and a wider African peace-and-security architecture. Its purpose is to prevent conflict, manage crises and support African-led solutions.
2. The organisation formally rejects unconstitutional changes of government. Yet repeated coups have shown how difficult consistent enforcement can be.
3. Major conflicts remain active in places such as Sudan, eastern DRC, Somalia and parts of the Sahel. These crises continue to test the AU’s political credibility.
4. Terrorism and armed groups increasingly operate across borders rather than within a single state. This makes regional coordination more necessary than ever.
5. AU-led missions show willingness to act, but many still rely heavily on external funding and logistics. The AU wants African solutions, but often lacks fully autonomous capacity.

AfCFTA: perhaps the AU’s biggest economic opportunity

1. The African Continental Free Trade Area, or AfCFTA, is one of the AU’s most important economic projects. Its goal is to create a much larger integrated African market.
2. Africa still trades relatively little with itself compared with Europe or parts of Asia. AfCFTA is designed to reduce barriers and increase intra-African commerce.
3. The project is not only about tariffs. It also depends on better transport, customs systems, payment networks, digital infrastructure and common standards.
4. A larger continental market could support regional value chains, manufacturing and industrialisation. It could also reduce overdependence on raw commodity exports.
5. The political promise is enormous, but implementation is the real test. Africa has designed a continental market; it must now make that market work in practice.

Africa wants more power in global institutions

1. The African Union became a permanent member of the G20 in 2023. This gave Africa a formal place in one of the world’s most important economic forums.
2. The G20 seat matters because the AU can now speak more directly on debt, trade, climate finance and development. It strengthens Africa’s collective diplomatic visibility.
3. The next major demand is reform of the United Nations Security Council. Africa remains the only major world region without permanent representation there.
4. Through the Ezulwini Consensus, African states seek at least two permanent seats and greater non-permanent representation. The argument is about correcting a major historical imbalance.
5. This is part of a wider struggle over global governance. Africa wants international institutions to reflect today’s distribution of population and power, not only the world of 1945.

The strategic question: can Africa act as one?

1. Africa’s geopolitical importance is rising because of its population, natural resources, markets and strategic geography. Major powers increasingly see the continent as central to future global competition.
2. China, the United States, the European Union, India, Russia, Türkiye and Gulf states are all deepening African ties. This gives African governments more diplomatic choices than before.
3. External competition can create opportunities, but it can also divide the continent. Individual states may gain short-term advantages while weakening common African positions.
4. Acting collectively would give Africa greater leverage on trade, finance, technology, climate negotiations and institutional reform. The AU can therefore become a platform for bargaining power.
5. The central question is strategic, not symbolic. Can Africa move from being a collection of important states to becoming an important geopolitical actor in its own right?

Conclusion

The African Union is becoming more important because Africa itself is becoming more important. Its 55 member states, young population, resources, expanding markets and strategic location give the continent growing influence in world affairs.

The AU has already achieved important gains through the AfCFTA, permanent G20 membership, peace-and-security institutions and a common position on global governance reform.

But serious limits remain: conflicts continue, implementation is uneven, national interests often dominate and financial dependence restricts autonomy. The AU’s future will therefore depend less on creating new declarations and more on executing existing ones. Its real test is whether Africa can convert growing importance into organised continental power.

Value addition

Glossary and related terms

Organisation of African Unity (OAU)

The continental organisation created in 1963 during the era of decolonisation, focused primarily on sovereignty and the liberation of Africa.

African Union (AU)

The continental organisation launched in 2002 with a broader mandate covering integration, development, peace, security and continental cooperation.

Agenda 2063

The AU’s long-term framework, often described as “The Africa We Want,” aimed at greater prosperity, integration, peace and global influence.

AfCFTA

The African Continental Free Trade Area, an AU project intended to create a much larger integrated African market and increase intra-African commerce.

Peace and Security Council

An AU institution within the wider African peace-and-security architecture for preventing conflict, managing crises and supporting African-led solutions.

Supranational union

A union in which common institutions exercise authority above national governments in some areas. The presentation stresses that the AU is not supranational in the way the European Union partly is.

ECOWAS

A regional organisation in West Africa. The presentation uses it as an example of a regional body that can act before the AU.

SADC

A regional organisation in Southern Africa and one of the layers of authority operating alongside the AU.

EAC

A regional organisation in East Africa and one of the regional bodies that may respond before the AU.

IGAD

A regional organisation associated with the Horn of Africa and East Africa, operating alongside national governments and the AU.

Mercator projection

The common map projection discussed in the presentation as making Africa appear smaller than it actually is.

Eckert IV projection

An equal-area world-map projection shown in the presentation as representing the relative area of continents more faithfully.

Ezulwini Consensus

The common African position cited in the presentation seeking at least two permanent seats and greater non-permanent representation on the UN Security Council.

Intra-African commerce

Trade among African economies. AfCFTA is presented as a mechanism for reducing barriers and increasing this commerce.

Regional value chains

Production and economic activity organised across several countries in a region; the presentation identifies them as a potential benefit of a larger African market.

Collective influence

The ability of African states to convert their combined demographic, economic and geopolitical weight into stronger bargaining and diplomatic power.

Value addition

Conceptual references

• The evolution from the Organisation of African Unity to the African Union.
• Agenda 2063 and the AU’s long-term continental ambitions.
• AfCFTA and the project of deeper intra-African economic integration.
• The AU Peace and Security Council and African peace-and-security architecture.
• G20 representation, UN Security Council reform and the Ezulwini Consensus.
• Mercator and Eckert IV map projections in debates about the visual representation of Africa’s scale.