Global Affairs Session 89 05 September 2026

DEEP POLITICS OF GCC & OPEC+

Who really controls the price of oil now?

The Gulf Cooperation Council and OPEC+ represent two different forms of regional and global influence. The GCC links six Gulf states through cooperation, while OPEC+ brings together major oil producers to coordinate production and influence market stability. The market ultimately sets oil prices, but OPEC+ remains the strongest organised force influencing supply, with Saudi Arabia, the GCC and Russia at the centre of the story.

Summary

The Gulf Cooperation Council and OPEC+ represent two different forms of regional and global influence. The GCC links six Gulf states through economic, political and security cooperation, while OPEC+ brings together major oil producers to coordinate production and support market stability.

Five GCC members participate in OPEC+, creating an important overlap between Gulf regional strategy and global energy policy. Their influence rests on oil, gas, financial strength, strategic geography and growing investment capacity.

Yet both face limits from national interests, incomplete integration and changing energy markets. Their future relevance depends on turning present advantages into broader, durable global strategic influence.

OPEC+ is wider than OPEC

1. OPEC was founded in 1960 and currently has 11 member countries from the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. (UAE exited in 2026)
2. OPEC+ emerged through the Declaration of Cooperation agreed in 2016 between OPEC members and participating non-OPEC oil producers.
3. The present OPEC+ framework brings together OPEC’s 11 members and 10 participating non-OPEC producers.
4. Major non-OPEC participants include Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Oman, Bahrain, Mexico and several other oil-producing states.
5. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait participate as OPEC members, while Oman and Bahrain participate through the non-OPEC side of OPEC+.
6. Qatar remains a GCC member but left OPEC in 2019 and is not part of the current OPEC+ production framework.

Six members, but different national strategies

1. Saudi Arabia is the GCC's largest economy and population centre and plays a major role in shaping regional political and economic priorities.
2. The UAE has developed into a major global centre for trade, aviation, logistics, finance, tourism and international investment.
3. Qatar has built extraordinary global energy influence around natural gas and liquefied natural gas exports rather than crude oil alone.
4. Kuwait remains an important oil producer and financial investor, while Oman follows a distinctive diplomatic and economic strategy within the Gulf.
5. Bahrain has a smaller economy but an important financial-services sector and strategic position within the regional security architecture.
6. These differences mean GCC cooperation depends on aligning national interests rather than transferring major sovereign powers to a supranational authority.

Deep politics in OPEC+ and OPEC

1. The deeper politics of OPEC+ is the strategic partnership between Saudi Arabia and Russia, to coordinate global oil supply and respond to competition from producers like US (for shale).
   • Beyond market stabilization, production policy serves the fiscal and strategic interests of member states: oil revenues support national budgets and domestic priorities, while control over significant export capacity gives major producers geopolitical influence.
   • OPEC+ is not just an anti-Western bloc; its members frequently have divergent interests and its supply decisions are shaped by market conditions as well as geopolitics.
2. As for OPEC, its internal politics combine resource nationalism, fiscal dependence, geopolitical rivalry and persistent tensions over quota compliance.
   • Saudi Arabia is its most influential producer because of its scale, low production costs and substantial spare capacity, but it does not dictate every decision.
   • It has frequently assumed a disproportionate share of production restraint - effectively acting as the group's “swing producer” - while some members have periodically produced above their agreed quotas to maximize short-term revenues.
   • This creates recurring friction over burden-sharing, credibility and enforcement within both OPEC and OPEC+. Rivalries like Saudi-Iranian competition have periodically shaped negotiations.
   • For many members, maintaining oil revenues is crucial for government spending and economic stability, while their position in global energy markets provides diplomatic leverage.

Who controls the oil prices

1. OPEC is still important, but OPEC+ matters more. OPEC coordinates major exporters such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE, but its real market power today comes through OPEC+.
2. OPEC+ is the strongest coordinated force in oil. It brings OPEC together with major non-OPEC producers such as Russia, Kazakhstan and Oman, allowing the group to influence global supply through production cuts or increases.
3. Saudi Arabia is the pivotal producer. It has large output, low production costs and significant spare capacity, giving it more ability than most countries to quickly tighten or loosen supply.
4. The GCC is the geographic heart of this power. Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait are central OPEC members, while Oman also participates in OPEC+.
5. Together, Gulf producers hold major reserves, export infrastructure and spare capacity. But they do not fully control prices. Oil prices are also driven by global demand, US production, inventories, wars, sanctions and financial markets.
6. Bottom line: The market sets the price, but OPEC+ has the greatest organised influence - with Saudi Arabia and the GCC at its core, and Russia as the key non-GCC partner.

OPEC+ influences supply, not the entire oil price

1. OPEC+ coordinates oil-production policies with the stated objective of supporting stability and balance in the international petroleum market.
2. Participating countries agree production frameworks through ministerial meetings and may also announce additional voluntary production adjustments.
3. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee reviews market conditions, production levels and conformity with agreed commitments.
4. Compensation mechanisms are used when countries produce above agreed levels, requiring them to offset excess production during later periods.
5. OPEC+ decisions can significantly affect global supply expectations because its members collectively account for a substantial share of world petroleum production.
6. Oil prices nevertheless also depend on global demand, inventories, geopolitical events, non-OPEC+ supply, economic growth, financial markets and expectations.

Conclusion

As of September 2026, no single country controls oil prices.

The market ultimately decides, but OPEC+ remains the strongest coordinated force influencing supply, with Saudi Arabia as the pivotal swing producer and Russia as a crucial partner.

US production, global demand, inventories, sanctions, wars and financial markets increasingly shape outcomes.

The future will remain multipolar, volatile and deeply geopolitical.

Value addition

Glossary and related terms

GCC

The Gulf Cooperation Council, a regional grouping of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

OPEC

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, a group of oil-exporting states that coordinates petroleum policies among its members.

OPEC+

A wider oil-producer framework that brings OPEC members together with participating non-OPEC producers to coordinate production policy.

Declaration of Cooperation

The 2016 arrangement through which OPEC and participating non-OPEC producers created the cooperation framework commonly called OPEC+.

Non-OPEC participating producers

Oil-producing countries outside OPEC that cooperate with OPEC members inside the OPEC+ framework.

Production quota

An agreed production limit or target used by oil-producing countries to manage supply and support market stability.

Voluntary production adjustment

An additional production cut or increase announced by a producer or group of producers beyond the main production framework.

Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee

An OPEC+ body that reviews market conditions, production levels and conformity with agreed commitments.

Compensation mechanism

A system requiring countries that produce above agreed levels to offset that excess production in later periods.

Spare capacity

The ability of an oil producer to increase output quickly when needed. Large spare capacity gives a producer unusual market influence.

Swing producer

A producer with enough spare capacity and market weight to raise or lower supply in ways that can influence prices.

Shale / tight oil

Oil extracted from low-permeability rock formations, especially associated with the United States.

Oil sands / bitumen

Very heavy oil extracted from sand and clay deposits, strongly associated with Canada.

Extra-heavy crude

Very dense and viscous oil that often requires upgrading or dilution, especially associated with Venezuela.

Deepwater offshore oil

Oil extracted from deep or ultra-deep waters using advanced offshore technology, important in countries such as Brazil, Guyana and Norway.

Light sweet crude

Crude oil that is relatively light and has low sulphur content, making it easier and often cheaper to refine.

Inventories

Stored petroleum stocks held by governments, companies or markets. Inventory changes can influence price expectations.

SPR

Strategic Petroleum Reserve: emergency oil stocks that governments may use during supply disruptions or market stress.

Geopolitical risk

The possibility that wars, sanctions, diplomatic tensions or political instability will affect energy supply, shipping routes or market expectations.

Market stability

A condition in which oil supply, demand and expectations remain balanced enough to avoid extreme price volatility.

Fiscal dependence

A situation in which a government relies heavily on oil revenues to fund budgets, public spending and domestic priorities.

Resource nationalism

The use of state power to control natural resources and ensure that energy revenues support national interests.

Quota compliance

The degree to which participating producers actually follow their agreed production limits.

Burden-sharing

The distribution of production cuts or restraint among participating producers. Disputes over burden-sharing can create friction inside OPEC and OPEC+.