Global Affairs Session 90 07 September 2026

WEST IN TURMOIL

Political Social Strategic upheaval

In the last 72 hours, the West has faced a compressed chain of shocks affecting infrastructure, alliances, economies, domestic politics and deterrence. The key story is not collapse, but overstretch: Western governments are trying to manage infrastructure failure, diplomatic rupture, trade conflict, war risk, energy pressure and political fragmentation at the same time.

Summary

In the last 72 hours, the West has faced a compressed chain of shocks:

• Britain’s air-traffic system failed.
• UK–France–Canada moved against Israeli settlement trade.
• Israel retaliated diplomatically.
• Canada’s tariff response to Trump-era US duties took effect.
• The US–Iran confrontation widened.
• Oil moved near the $100 zone.
• Germany saw a major AfD breakthrough.
• Europe reported fresh Russian-linked sabotage threats.

The common thread is not one crisis, but simultaneous stress on Western infrastructure, alliances, economies, domestic politics and deterrence.

What is the ‘West’

1. The West is the broad political, economic and strategic grouping centred on North America and Europe, built around liberal-democratic institutions, market economies and the US-led post-1945 security order.
2. Think of it in three layers:
   1. Core West United States, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Italy and most of Western/Northern Europe.
   2. Institutional West NATO and EU countries broadly.
   3. Wider strategic West Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea; Israel is often associated with this camp strategically, although geographically it is in the Middle East.
3. So be the ‘West’, we mean the US-led political, economic and security system centred on North America and Europe, along with its closest strategic partners.”

Trump, the great bulldozer

1. Turned allies into trade adversaries - tariffs and import restrictions on Canada and threats toward Europe weakened the idea of a unified Western economic bloc.
2. Made NATO commitment look less predictable - repeated pressure on allies, reduced US force contributions in some NATO crisis capabilities, and uncertainty over future commitments weakened confidence in American reliability.
3. Made support for Ukraine more transactional - demanding greater European payment and reimbursement shifted the alliance from shared strategic burden to bargaining over costs.
4. Weakened multilateral institutions - confrontation with institutions such as the ICC reinforced the perception that Washington is willing to bypass or punish international bodies it dislikes.
5. Accelerated Western fragmentation - Europe and Canada have been pushed to think more independently about defence, trade and foreign policy rather than assuming automatic US leadership.

Britain under stress

1. UK air traffic control suffered a major NATS technical failure. Heathrow, Gatwick, Manchester and Stansted faced disruption.
2. Over 1,900 flights were reportedly cancelled over two days. NATS chief ruled out a cyberattack.
3. Airlines demanded accountability and stronger backup systems.
4. Clearly, even advanced states remain vulnerable to infrastructure breakdown.
5. The timing couldn’t be more interesting; UK took a stand on Israeli settlers a few hours ago!

The West pressures Israel

1. UK announced tough new powers against illegal settlement activity. Measures include banning imports from illegal settlements.
2. France and Canada coordinated with Britain.
3. Twelve countries backed action to protect the two-state solution. They issued a joint statement announcing national bans on trade in goods from illegal Israeli settlements: 🇫🇷 France 🇬🇧 United Kingdom 🇨🇦 Canada 🇩🇰 Denmark 🇪🇸 Spain 🇫🇮 Finland 🇮🇪 Ireland 🇮🇸 Iceland 🇳🇴 Norway 🇵🇱 Poland 🇵🇹 Portugal 🇸🇪 Sweden
4. The focus is settlement expansion, E1 and settler violence.
5. Israel is facing rising pressure from traditional Western partners.

Israel hits back

1. Israel moved to close Britain’s East Jerusalem consulate, accusing Britain of hostile political interference.
2. UK–Israel relations entered a sharper diplomatic phase.
3. The dispute links Gaza, West Bank settlements and recognition of Palestine.
4. Washington did not follow the UK–France–Canada path. Its deep links with Israeli influence do not allow it to.
5. Western unity over Israel is visibly weakening.

Trump versus Canada

1. Canada’s retaliatory tariffs came into effect on September 8. Measures matched US duties dollar for dollar.
2. Targeted sectors include steel, dairy, appliances and equipment. The dispute covers around $20 billion in trade exposure.
3. Canada is being pushed to diversify beyond US dependence. It is now getting closer to the EU at a rapid pace.
4. Even close allies are using economic coercion against each other.

Iran–US confrontation spreads

1. Iran attacked US-linked targets around Jordan and across the wider Gulf region, signalling a broader escalation in tensions involving American military and strategic interests.
2. In response, US forces struck Iranian oil tankers, showing that the confrontation was no longer limited to rhetoric but had moved into direct military action.
3. Ships operating near the Strait of Hormuz were also targeted, raising concerns about the safety of one of the world’s most critical maritime trade and energy corridors.
4. Iran claimed that it had captured a US underwater drone, adding another layer of tension and highlighting the growing contest below the sea as well.
5. As a result, Jordan and key Gulf shipping routes are now far more exposed, with regional security risks spreading beyond fixed military installations.
6. Core message: the conflict is no longer confined to military bases alone; it is now expanding outward toward vital maritime chokepoints and commercial sea routes.

Oil, inflation and economic shock

1. Brent crude moved around the psychologically important $100-a-barrel threshold, reflecting growing concern over disruption to global energy supplies.
2. Houthi attacks struck Saudi energy facilities, adding fresh pressure to already fragile regional oil and infrastructure security.
3. Rising risks across the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz increased fears of supply disruption and higher shipping costs.
4. Persistent energy insecurity could revive inflationary pressure across Western economies and complicate efforts to stabilise consumer prices.
5. Western central banks may therefore face a much harder policy environment, balancing inflation risks against slowing economic growth.

Europe’s political and security shock

1. AfD won around 44% in Saxony-Anhalt, in a first for the German Right after 1940s. Germany’s political centre faces new pressure.
2. The result strengthens debate over immigration, economy and Russia policy.
3. Germany accused Russia over the Leipzig/Halle airport drone plot.
4. Romania said it foiled a Russian-coordinated sabotage operation.
5. Europe faces pressure from both internal politics and external hybrid threats.

Conclusion

West is now under simultaneous pressures.

Britain’s infrastructure looked fragile. Israel’s settlement policy split Western allies. Trump’s trade war pushed Canada toward retaliation. Iran and US forces moved closer to direct regional confrontation. Oil markets reacted to Gulf insecurity. Germany’s AfD breakthrough exposed Europe’s domestic volatility. Russian-linked sabotage allegations added another layer of threat.

The key story is not collapse, but overstretch. Western governments are trying to manage infrastructure failure, diplomatic rupture, trade conflict, war risk, energy pressure and political fragmentation at the same time.

Value addition

Glossary and related terms

The West

The broad political, economic and strategic grouping centred on North America and Europe and linked to the US-led post-1945 security order, along with close strategic partners.

Core West

The presentation’s term for the United States, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Italy and most of Western and Northern Europe.

Institutional West

The presentation’s term for the wider grouping built broadly around NATO and European Union countries.

Wider strategic West

Close strategic partners beyond North America and Europe, including Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea; the presentation also associates Israel strategically with this camp.

NATO

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the principal transatlantic security alliance linking the United States, Canada and European allies.

European Union (EU)

The political and economic union of European states referred to in the presentation as a major part of the institutional West.

ICC

The International Criminal Court, cited in the presentation while discussing tensions between US policy and multilateral institutions.

NATS

The UK air-navigation-services organisation referred to in the presentation in connection with the air-traffic-control technical failure.

Infrastructure resilience

The ability of critical systems such as air traffic, energy and transport networks to continue operating or recover quickly after technical failure or disruption.

Two-state solution

The proposed political framework in which Israel and a Palestinian state exist alongside each other; the presentation links settlement-trade measures to efforts to protect this outcome.

Israeli settlements

Israeli civilian communities in territories captured in 1967; the presentation focuses on settlement expansion, trade and settler violence in the West Bank.

E1

An area in the West Bank highlighted in debates over settlement expansion and the territorial viability of a future Palestinian state.

Retaliatory tariff

An import duty imposed in response to another country’s tariffs, illustrated in the presentation by Canada’s response to US duties.

Economic coercion

The use of trade, tariffs or other economic pressure to influence another state’s behaviour.

Strait of Hormuz

The narrow maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea and a central energy-shipping chokepoint in the presentation.

Maritime chokepoint

A narrow sea route through which a large volume of trade or energy passes, making disruption strategically significant.

Brent crude

A major global oil benchmark used in the presentation to discuss the psychologically important $100-a-barrel threshold.

Energy insecurity

Uncertainty over reliable energy supply, shipping and infrastructure that can raise costs and contribute to inflationary pressure.

AfD

Alternative für Deutschland, the German political party whose Saxony-Anhalt result is presented as a major political shock.

Hybrid threat

Pressure that can combine conventional security risks with sabotage, cyber activity, drones, disinformation or other disruptive methods below the level of full-scale war.

Sabotage

Deliberate action intended to damage or disrupt infrastructure, equipment or operations; the presentation refers to Russian-linked sabotage allegations in Europe.

Deterrence

The effort to prevent hostile action by convincing an adversary that the costs or risks of acting will outweigh the gains.

Overstretch

The presentation’s concluding idea that Western governments are simultaneously managing infrastructure failure, diplomatic rupture, trade conflict, war risk, energy pressure and political fragmentation.