Global Affairs Session 112 20 October 2026

EUROPE'S FAR-RIGHT REVOLT

Elections that can change Europe

Summary

Europe is approaching a political turning point.

Far-right and nationalist parties have recorded substantial electoral gains in Germany, Austria, Portugal and elsewhere, challenging established political institutions. But Europe's transformation is not simply a rightward shift. France is witnessing mass protests involving left-wing organisations, Sweden's centre-left has won a parliamentary majority, and Hungary's nationalist government has been defeated.

With major elections approaching in Spain, France, Italy and Poland, the continent faces competing political movements and increasingly fragmented governments. Can Europe maintain its unity amid these divisions? The consequences could reshape migration, economic policy, international security and relations with India.

FRANCE: FAR-RIGHT ELECTIONS, LEFT-WING PROTESTS

1. Electoral contradiction: National Rally's strength coexists with a significant left-wing electorate and powerful social protest movements.
2. Fragmented parliament: The 2024 election gave the broad left alliance 178 seats and National Rally candidates 125; neither secured a majority.
3. October unrest: Nationwide demonstrations in October 2026 exposed anger over living costs, education conditions and public services.
4. Left-wing mobilisation: Trade unions, students and left-wing leaders participated, but protesters did not share one political affiliation.
5. Protest versus violence: Most demonstrators protested peacefully, while separate riots and looting require careful distinction and attribution.
6. Presidential stakes: France's April–May 2027 election could reshape debates over European integration, immigration, fiscal policy and defence cooperation.

EUROPE'S POLITICAL EARTHQUAKE: WHAT IS HAPPENING?

1. Electoral crossroads: Spain votes in November 2026, while France, Italy and Poland face consequential national elections in 2027.
2. German breakthrough: AfD doubled its vote share to 20.8% in 2025, disrupting established politics without entering government.
3. Wider nationalist gains: Austria's FPÖ led its 2024 election; Portugal's Chega overtook the Socialists in parliamentary seats in 2025.
4. Contrasting outcomes: Hungary removed Orbán in 2026, while Sweden's centre-left bloc gained a parliamentary majority the same year.
5. Different forms of dissent: Elections reward parties; street protests expose grievances; coalition negotiations determine who can exercise government power.
6. Central argument: Europe faces simultaneous far-right growth, left-wing mobilisation and weakening political consensus, not a uniform ideological transformation.

WHY ARE EUROPEANS TURNING AGAINST TRADITIONAL PARTIES?

1. Shrinking mainstream: Germany's SPD fell from 25.7% to 16.4%, revealing declining support for an established governing party.
2. Economic frustration: Living costs, energy prices and purchasing-power pressures can intensify dissatisfaction with established governments.
3. Housing anger: Spain's housing crisis triggered protests and parliamentary conflict, placing affordability at the centre of electoral debate.
4. Immigration divides: Disagreements over asylum, irregular migration and integration have made border management a major political controversy.
5. Sovereignty debate: Nationalists demand greater national control, while integration supporters emphasise common European rules and collective solutions.
6. Discontent cuts both ways: Germany's AfD and left-wing Die Linke both gained votes in 2025, demonstrating competing responses to dissatisfaction.

THE ULTRA-RIGHT CHALLENGE: FIVE MAJOR COUNTRY STORIES

1. Germany: Opposition without power: AfD secured 152 Bundestag seats, but exclusion from the governing coalition limits its direct federal influence.
2. Austria: Coalition barriers: FPÖ finished first in 2024, yet competing parties formed a government without it.
3. Portugal: Party-system disruption: Chega captured 60 parliamentary seats in 2025, becoming the principal opposition and weakening traditional party dominance.
4. France: Nationalist advance: National Rally strengthened its parliamentary presence, but opposition alliances prevented a far-right legislative majority in 2024.
5. Italy: Governing reality: Giorgia Meloni's nationalist-conservative government supports NATO and Ukraine, illustrating differences between right-wing parties across Europe.
6. Ideological differences: Europe's nationalist parties disagree over Russia, welfare, economic regulation and European integration despite sharing restrictive immigration positions.

THE COUNTERTREND: EUROPE IS NOT UNIFORMLY MOVING RIGHT

1. Hungary: Nationalist defeat: Péter Magyar's centre-right Tisza party ended Orbán's 16-year rule, demonstrating that nationalist incumbents remain electorally vulnerable.
2. Sweden: Centre-left gains: Centre-left parties secured 176 parliamentary seats in September 2026, defeating the outgoing right-wing bloc.
3. Sweden Democrats retreat: Their vote share declined to 17.48%, showing that radical-right electoral support can also weaken.
4. Netherlands: Liberal-led government: Rob Jetten took office in February 2026, although his coalition's minority status requires parliamentary compromise.
5. Germany: Growth on both sides: Die Linke increased its support to 8.8% in 2025, alongside AfD's substantial advances.
6. Fragmentation over uniformity: Different countries produce contrasting results, unstable coalitions and competing ideological movements rather than one European political trajectory.

CAN THE FAR- OR ULTRA-RIGHT ACTUALLY CHANGE THE EUROPEAN UNION?

1. Rightward parliamentary shift: Nationalist groups strengthened in 2024, but remain divided across different European Parliament political families.
2. Centrist cooperation survives: EPP, S&D and Renew aligned in 78% of studied roll-call votes, sometimes alongside additional groups.
3. Pivotal centre-right: EPP can form different alliances, making its coalition choices crucial to many EU legislative decisions.
4. Selective right-wing alliances: EPP sided with groups to its right against major left-wing groups in approximately 14% of analysed votes.
5. Tangible policy influence: Right-leaning coalitions have supported tougher migrant-return rules and lighter sustainability reporting requirements.
6. Institutional constraints: Most European legislation requires negotiation between Parliament and national governments, limiting unilateral changes by any single political movement.

ELECTIONS THAT CAN CHANGE EUROPE, THE WORLD AND INDIA

1. Spain's immediate test: November's election could change the governing coalition and Spain's negotiating positions within European institutions.
2. France's strategic importance: The 2027 presidential election could influence EU defence cooperation, immigration policy and European integration.
3. Italy and Poland next: Their 2027 parliamentary elections could alter the balance among national governments negotiating European policies.
4. Security disagreements: European parties differ over Ukraine assistance, Russia sanctions and NATO commitments, complicating collective strategic decisions.
5. India's economic stakes: EU–India goods trade reached €118 billion in 2025; the negotiated trade agreement still requires formal approval.
6. Three possible futures: Renewed centrist cooperation, stronger nationalist influence or prolonged political fragmentation could shape Europe's next chapter.

Conclusion

Europe is polarising, not just moving right. Far-right nationalist parties are gaining ground, but left-wing mobilisation, centrist victories, and nationalist defeats reveal competing political forces across Europe.

Fragmentation is the real challenge. Rising living costs, housing pressures, immigration disputes, and nationalism are weakening traditional parties, dividing voters, and producing fragile governing coalitions.

Europe’s future hangs in the balance. Centrist cooperation still anchors EU decision-making, but upcoming elections could reshape European unity, economic policies, trade, defence, and global relations, including with India.

Value addition

Glossary and related terms

Far left

Seeks fundamental transformation of capitalism and economic power, often through radical socialism. Example: La France Insoumise, France (left to far-left).

Left

Promotes economic equality, workers' rights and extensive public services through socialist or progressive policies. Example: Die Linke, Germany.

Centre-left

Supports capitalism combined with strong welfare programmes, redistribution and social protections. Example: Social Democratic Party, Sweden.

Centre

Favours pragmatic compromises, moderate reforms and a balance between market freedom and public intervention. Example: Renaissance, France.

Centre-right

Supports market economics, private enterprise, institutional stability and moderate conservatism. Example: Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Germany.

Right

Emphasizes conservatism, traditional values, national identity, law and order, and market-oriented policies. Example: Partido Popular (PP), Spain.

Far right

Emphasizes strong nationalism, restrictive immigration, cultural identity and opposition to established political elites. Example: National Rally, France; AfD, Germany.

Extreme right / Ultra-right

Advocates extremist ethnonationalist or racist ideas, sometimes explicitly rejecting liberal democracy. Example: Der III. Weg, Germany (neo-Nazi party).

AfD

Alternative für Deutschland (Alternative for Germany), the German party discussed in the lecture.

FPÖ

Freedom Party of Austria, the Austrian party discussed in the 2024 election results.

Chega

Portuguese political party discussed as the principal opposition after the 2025 election.

National Rally

French nationalist political party discussed in the 2024 parliamentary election and 2027 presidential stakes.

Die Linke

German left-wing party discussed alongside AfD in the 2025 election.

SPD

Social Democratic Party of Germany, whose vote-share decline is discussed in the PPT.

Tisza

Hungarian centre-right party led by Péter Magyar, discussed in the 2026 election.

Bundestag

The national parliament of Germany.

European Union (EU)

Political and economic union whose elections, legislation, trade and security debates feature in the lecture.

European Parliament

Directly elected EU institution where party groups form voting alliances.

EPP

European People’s Party, the centre-right European Parliament political group discussed in the lecture.

S&D

Socialists & Democrats, a European Parliament political group discussed alongside EPP and Renew.

Renew

Renew Europe, the centrist/liberal European Parliament group referenced in voting comparisons.

Roll-call vote

Parliamentary vote where the recorded positions of members can be analysed.

Coalition government

Government formed through cooperation among political parties.

Political fragmentation

Dispersion of electoral support among competing political parties, complicating government formation.

Political sovereignty

A state’s authority to make its own decisions, a central issue in national-versus-EU debates.

NATO

North Atlantic Treaty Organization, discussed in connection with European security and Ukraine.

EU–India trade

Trade relationship discussed in the lecture when assessing European political changes and India.